The Daily Reckoning - Lost In Space (Bill Bonner)

Lost In Space

The Daily Reckoning

Paris, France

Friday, 23 January 2004

---------------------

*** When the rig blows up... ?

*** Housing driving (somehow) the economy... a lot of
downside available...

*** Dollar still in decline. Where's the violent
correction? Where's the panic... ? Still ahead, dear reader!
Blind people are dangerous too... and more!

---------------------

"When and how will this stupendous rig end?"

The King Report poses the question... the same question that
entertains us nearly each and every day.

"That's the multi-trillion dollar question that regularly
punctuates daily conversations on The Street. While
Bubblevision and Wall Street shills try to entice buying
with projections of 10-15% gains, some operators are
patiently but vigilantly awaiting the opportunity to make
[money]... on the bursting of this historic 'Double Bubble.'
The big money will be made on the downside."

We have climbed to the top of the mountain, dear reader.
Never before have we been at such high elevations of debt,
confidence, self-satisfaction and asset price inflation.
Debt has reached beyond 3 times total GDP - more than twice
its 'normal' level. Under the Bush Administration, federal
spending is increasing faster than under any president in
the last 50 years (see below)... while taxes are being cut.
Housing prices in many parts of the country are rising 5 to
10 times as fast as inflation.

We stop here to reflect on the curious phenomenon of
housing.

"Housing Keeps Driving the Economy," says a headline from
yesterday. Housing starts are at levels not seen since
1978.

But how can housing drive an economy? Housing is merely a
consumer item. It must mean that Americans are 'consuming'
more housing... just as they are consuming more automobiles
and more home theater systems.

When the Chinese figure out how to manufacture houses, the
U.S. is in big trouble. But for the moment, a boom in
housing means a boom in U.S. employment. And, of course, as
houses go up in price, the householder is able to 'take out
equity' - and spend it! Tax and interest rates make it
easier for him to spend more... as long as he focuses only
on cashflow, and not his balance sheet... as long as he
considers only the short-run, not the long term... as long
as he thinks only of having money 'just in time' rather
than 'just in case.'

So he consumes more of everything... making the highest
monthly payments ever... going bankrupt at the fastest pace
ever... while believing he is getting rich.

What to make of it? The air at these altitudes must be so
thin that people have begun to hallucinate... to imagine
things.

As Bill King says, the money will be made on the downside.
Why? Because there is so much downside available!

Richard Russell gives us some numbers to show how much
downside there really is.

At the bottom of a bear market, stocks trade at low P/Es
and high dividend yields. In 1949, for example, the average
stock sold for less than 6 times earnings, with a dividend
yield of 7.6%. The next low was in 1974, when P/Es dropped
to 7.5 and dividend yields hit 5.1%. In 1980, again stocks
reached the bottom of a downside at 6.8 times earnings and
a dividend yield of 5.7%. Two years later, they fell into
yet another crevice with average P/Es below 8 and an
average dividend yield over 6%.

Suffering from apparent oxygen deprivation, today's
investors don't bother to look down. They believe that
another important bottom was hit in October of 2002 - at a
P/E of 33 and a dividend yield of 1.8%! We think, rather,
it was a ledge.

We invite you, dear reader, to ease yourself over to the
edge of it and look over. Hold on tight... because it's a
long way down. See those teeny, tiny little specks down
there? Believe it or not... they're the great stocks and
great houses that everybody thought could never go down.
But there they are... at a fraction of today's size. When
the Dow finally gets down there, it will be at only about
2,500 points above sea level. And investors, those that
survive the long climb down, will have lighter
portfolios... but clearer heads.

And now, here's Addison with more news:

Addison Wiggin with commentaire générale on the markets...

- "Hope" and "Danger" battled with equal ferocity on the
Street of broken dreams yesterday... and cancelled each
other out. The Dow, absorbing an earnings bombshell from
Microsoft, closed the day virtually even at 10,623. The S&P
500 lost 3 points to close at 1143. The Nasdaq got whacked
for 23 points, but remains firmly above the 2,000 mark at
2,119.

- Gold dropped a buck ten to $410. And despite the best
efforts of world's central bankers, the dollar also fell
for the third consecutive day, reaching $1.26 against the
euro.

- Over the last three months, central banks around the
world have colluded to prop up the crumbling dollar with
$1.2 billion each and every eight-hour business day... or
around $2.6 million a minute. And despite the huge $115
billion dollars piled up in 93 days on foreign central
banks' behalf at the New York Federal Reserve, the
Greenback has fallen 6.5% against a basket of its major
trading partners since September.

- At the current rate of spending, reports London's
MoneyWeek magazine, "Japanese intervention [in currency
markets] will top Y120 trillion in 2004." That's about
$1.13 trillion, or 33 times Bill Gates' entire net
worth... in one year! Yet, since September, the Nippon
nation's trillions have limited the Yen's rise to, oh -
just 3% against the greenback.

- "Can you see why there are widely held fears outside of
America," our London correspondent, Sean Corrigan, asked
this morning, "that [the dollar's] fall will become
'disorderly,' as the authorities call it - as in Pound
Sterling's 'disorderly' movement of September 1992?" Sean,
a reformed Forex trader, was working a currency trading
desk on the day the pound was yanked out of the European
Exchange Rate Mechanism. George Soros gets all the glory
for having made a billion dollars that day... but there were
others, dear reader, there were others. [For Sean's first-
hand account of Black Wednesday, please see his Daily
Reckoning Classique:

Black Wednesday - Ten Years On
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3868 ]

- Meanwhile, back in the homeland, Senator Charles Schumer,
a Dumbass-ocrat from New York, is sponsoring legislation to
impose tariffs of as much as 27.5% on Chinese imports, as a
punishment - get this - for accumulating so many "zero-
rate, irredeemable IOUs" - otherwise know as U.S. Dollars.
(Where on earth do these guys come from?!?)

- One of the major problems facing the world's reserve
currency, we repeat with the regularity of a petulant 4-
year old, is the "drunken sailor" approach to spending
engaged upon by the government currently backing it.
"Nationwide, this economy is strong," president Bush told
students at a community college in Toledo on Tuesday night.
"Housing is up, inflation is low... things are happening."
Of course, things are happening. Paraphrasing Warren
Buffet, "If we spent a trillion dollars, we could make
things happen, too."

- The strategy seems fairly simple: keep rates low, cut
taxes (heaven forbid, not spending), and when the economy
heats up and begins to produce jobs... tax the new incomes.
Et voilà, we're in the clear. Of course, as we've been
reporting, there's no clear trend indicating that jobs are
being created. In the meantime, the lumps have to hope and
pray that housing continues to stay strong. "What they're
really hoping," Prudential Securities' Chuck Gabriel told
MSNBC, "is that if you ignore the future costs in the war
on terrorism and you ignore the costs of extending these
expiring tax provisions... yeah, in fact, the $480 billion
deficit will trend down." What about spending? Why not cut
spending? (More on this exigent theme from Bill Bonner,
below... )

- In the meantime, the financial media is all agog over the
housing start numbers for '03. "Housing Keeps Driving the
Economy," says a headline in the NYTimes. Reports this week
from the Census Bureau put housing starts at their most
robust in a quarter century. The news drove homebuilding
stocks wild. "We have three homebuilders on our recommend
list," writes True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud. "The
gains so far are downright silly." Steve's recommendation:
"keep buying."

- On the other hand, our macro-man Dan Denning doesn't like
what he's seeing. "On the face of it," says Denning, "the
census bureau numbers confirm that the housing boom is
alive and well, right?" After all, according to the
Mortgage Bankers Association of America, the 30-year fixed
mortgage rate is 5.56%, still historically low.

- "The question I have to ask is," continues Dan, "'How
long can something stay historically high or low before it
goes back to historically average?' Before you answer
'apparently much longer than you think,' consider this:
housing activity is a function of affordability. As home
prices rise, homes become less affordable to marginally
qualified buyers entering into the market for the first
time with generous borrowing terms. The other pressure on
affordability is stagnant or declining consumer
incomes... and higher unemployment.

- "The housing market today reminds me of the tech market
in '99," writes Denning. "If you raised even a hint of a
doubt, you were laughed out of the room, humored, or patted
on the head sympathetically, like a wayward child. No one
can imagine that what we're really seeing is the hyperbolic
phase of a credit-induced bubble in the American housing
market, and that it's going to have disastrous consequences
for nearly everyone involved."

Bill Bonner, back in Paris...

*** Oh là là... the dollar has resumed its decline... falling
for the 3rd day in a row yesterday. So far, it is
remarkable how calm and orderly this bear market has been.
The dollar has fallen some 40% against the euro... but with
no great panic... and no great correction. Typically, Mr.
Market tries to shake people out of their positions... in
both directions. As people get onto the rising euro, for
example, you'd expect a violent correction to discourage
them. Likewise, you should be prepared for a panic selling
of the dollar... to put the dollar bulls to flight. None of
this has happened yet. Well, another thing to look forward
to...

**** Nor has there been panic or violent correction in the
gold market. Again, something to look forward to...

*** The sticker price of the average car has gone over
$30,000 for the first time ever. But don't pay any
attention to that - what's the monthly?

*** Jay Leno [with thanks to Bill King]: "I tell you
something fascinating - John Kerry's victory over Howard
Dean has completely changed the presidential race around.
Now instead of the rich white guy from Yale who lives in
the White House facing off against the rich white guy from
Yale who lives in Vermont, he may have to face the rich
white guy from Yale who lives in Massachusetts. It's a
whole different game."

*** President Bush was "like a blind man in a room full of
deaf people," former Treasury secretary Paul O'Neill
recently remarked.

Blind people should demand an apology, we replied; their
only problem is that they cannot see. The real disasters
are caused by people with perfectly good eyesight, we
continued.

Here, a blind reader reminds us that even people who cannot
see can be dangerous:

"Dear Mr. Bonner, you do us (I speak as a totally blind
subscriber) an 'injustice.' Unless my memory is playing
tricks on me, the Holy Imam who was arrested in connection
with the unsuccessful bombing preceding 9/11 was blind.
Many a time and oft have I jokingly told my family that
with my meltingly charming innocence it would have been
possible for me to courier any amount of contraband and
worse across borders. But the point is that 'the poor
blind' gentleman referred to above should be a warning
against the sentimental slush and the sheer stupidity of
those who treat us as from another world. We deserve no
more and no less than the rest of mankind."

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: A voyage to the
moon... literally...

LOST IN SPACE
by Bill Bonner

"We sense that we live in a time set apart."

- George W. Bush
State of the Union, 2004

A remarkable combination of self-delusion and self-
satisfaction seems to be driving Americans to self-
destruction. Limited government... balanced budget... fewer
regulations - Republican principles from the Eisenhower era
might have protected them. Too bad Republicans no longer
believe in them.

Never before has the nation been so deeply in debt. Yet,
never before have any people been so eager to spend more.
On the road to ruination... they press down on the
accelerator.

Here, from Bill King, are the average annual real increases
in domestic discretionary spending:

LBJ 1965-69 4.3%
Richard Nixon 1970-75 6.8%
Gerald Ford 1976-77 8.0%
Jimmy Carter 1978-81 2.0%
Ronald Reagan 1982-89 -1.3%
George H.W. Bush 1990-93 4.0%
Bill Clinton 1994-2001 2.5%
George W. Bush 2002-04 8.2%.

(Source: Club for Growth, based on U.S. Budget, Historical
Tables, 2004)

We are talking, of course, of the usual slimy programs.
George W. Bush, the conservative republican, is increasing
spending more than 300% faster than his predecessor, Bill
Clinton, the liberal democrat.

But that is the charm of politics. Its shifty sands cover
the creepy tracks of countless crooks and connivers. No
sooner has a man piled up a few corrupt positions, policies
and proposals... than the winds change, and his whole
program is blown away. He re-invents himself as the
opportunities present themselves.

"It's strange how you never know what you're going to get
with a President," writes Doug Casey. "Few people remember
that Franklin Roosevelt ran on what was almost a radical
free market platform in 1932, decrying the tax, spend and
regulate policies of Hoover. One might have thought you'd
have gotten fiscal conservative with Reagan... but his
policies sent the deficit through the roof. It was
reasonable to anticipate a socialist disaster with Clinton,
but government spending grew slower than the overall
economy. Baby Bush, few now recall, made noises about
personal freedom, and no more 'nation building' in foreign
hellholes.

"I'm not sure what conclusion on can draw from all this,
apart from the fact that the kind of people who survive in
the game of politics long enough to become President are,
almost necessarily, pathological liars."

We do not recall it, but according to legend, if not
history, there was a time when republicans still might have
had a claim to some small measure of integrity. The lumpen
republican could hold his head high, for at least his party
platform rested on what many took to be eternal verities -
spend little, balance the budget, and mind your own
business.

Murray Rothbard saw the sand get into the Republican gear
box more than 10 years ago. He wrote:

"In the spring of 1981, conservative Republicans in the
House of Representatives cried. They cried because, in the
first flush of the Reagan Revolution that was supposed to
bring drastic cuts in taxes and government spending, as
well as a balanced budget, they were being asked by the
White House and their own leadership to vote for an
increase in the statutory limit on the federal public debt,
which was then scraping the legal ceiling of one trillion
dollars. They cried because all of their lives they had
voted against an increase in public debt, and now they were
being asked, by their own party and their own movement, to
violate their lifelong principles. The White House and its
leadership assured them that this breach in principle would
be their last: that it was necessary for one last increase
in the debt limit to give President Reagan a chance to
bring about a balanced budget and to begin to reduce the
debt. Many of these Republicans tearfully announced that
they were taking this fateful step because they deeply
trusted their President, who would not let them down.

"Famous last words. In a sense, the Reagan handlers were
right: there were no more tears, no more complaints,
because the principles themselves were quickly forgotten,
swept into the dustbin of history. Deficits and the public
debt have piled up mountainously since then, and few people
care, least of all conservative Republicans. Every few
years, the legal limit is raised automatically. By the end
of the Reagan reign the federal debt was $2.6 trillion; now
it is $3.5 trillion and rising rapidly [ed. Note: $7
trillion as of today, Jan. 23, 2004]. And this is the rosy
side of the picture, because if you add in 'off-budget'
loan guarantees and contingencies, the grand total federal
debt is $20 trillion.

"Before the Reagan era, conservatives were clear about how
they felt about deficits and the public debt: a balanced
budget was good, and deficits and the public debt were bad,
piled up by free-spending Keynesians and socialists, who
absurdly proclaimed that there was nothing wrong or onerous
about the public debt. In the famous words of the left-
Keynesian apostle of 'functional finance,' Professor Abba
Lerner, there is nothing wrong with the public debt because
'we owe it to ourselves.' In those days, at least,
conservatives were astute enough to realize that it made an
enormous amount of difference whether - slicing through the
obfuscatory collective nouns - one is a member of the 'we'
(the burdened taxpayer) or of the 'ourselves' (those living
off the proceeds of taxation).

"Since Reagan, however, intellectual-political life has
gone topsy-turvy. Conservatives and allegedly 'free-market'
economists have turned handsprings trying to find new
reasons why 'deficits don't matter.'"

Fortsetzung folgt...

Fortsetzung von Lost in Space:

Today, if you were to pose the question to the small-town
republican, you might still find a faint residue of the Old
Religion. But the poor man has been betrayed... by his
party... by his representatives... by politics itself... and
by his own fatal urges.

Like investors, republicans have gone a little light in the
head. They no longer aim for balanced budget and modest
programs; they aim for the stars.

"You can't have a war, cut taxes, have the economy in a
garbage pail and spend billions going into space," said an
American quoted in the Economist. But this old-school
Republican is sadly out of step with the times. The new-
school conservatives are on the march... headed to
buffoonery.

It is fairly late in the day of what Bank Credit Analyst
refers to as the "supercycle" of credit. The idea is fairly
simple. All of nature works in cycles. You are born; you
die. There are the seasons, the earth's annual movement
around the sun, and its daily spin. Things go up and then
they go down. The 'hog cycle' - in which hog prices rise
and fall with production - takes only about 18 months. The
presidential cycle takes 4 years. A supercycle is merely a
cycle that takes a long time and includes many other mini-
cycles.

The key dates for America's supercycle of credit - also
known to Daily Reckoning readers as the Dollar Standard Era
- are 1913, 1933, and 1971. In 1913, the Federal Reserve
was set up. In 1933, Roosevelt banned gold and brought
European-style social welfare programs to America. And in
1971, Richard Nixon broke the last link with
gold... creating an international monetary system based
entirely on paper - or fiat - money.

Not entirely by coincidence, 1971 was also the year in
which the space shuttle program was launched. Since then,
in current dollars, about $150 billion has been spent on
the program. That may seem like a lot of money to you, dear
reader, but it is nothing compared to the cost of the next
phase. President Bush plans to put up a permanent station
on the moon... and to move on from there to Mars. "The sky's
the limit," says the Economist.

Thus we see the full ambition of the new conservatives - to
conquer not just this tired old ball we live on... but the
entire galaxy.

"This development will open new worlds; and its
consequences will go a long way toward cleaning up and
vastly enriching the old one. It will not be merely
revolutionary: it will be Promethean."

The writer is Rod Martin of Vanguard, a republican
Political Action Committee, a man who seems to have spent
too much time staring at the full moon. Now, he howls:

"The only real question is who will exploit it. Will
America colonize those new worlds, controlling the economic
life of humanity to a degree today's Arabs can only dream
of, or will we allow others to dominate us instead?

"Will Washington and Madison's children continue to lead in
science, military power, and political dominance, or will
it cede that to the socialists in Brussels, or even the
totalitarians in Beijing?

"That question remains to be answered. But for today, while
we wait for the new Orvilles and Wilburs to do their magic,
George Bush is building - at a miniscule cost - the
infrastructure to give America the early lead. The day may
come when we and our children owe all we have to this
single act of statesmanship."

Here we have what must be the new-Republican manifesto.
Gone is any trace of republican virtue... laissez-faire
deference, humility, modesty, probity and thrift. Instead,
we are expected not just to get along with our fellow man,
but to dominate him politically... to outdo him in
science... and to outspend him. Forget letting him run his
own life. We are going to control "the economic life of
humanity."

They might as well be democrats!

What words can stand up against this grandiose vision, dear
reader? it is arrogant. It is audacious. It is proud and
confident. It is loony.

Yes, that is it... or lunatic. Root = luna, the moon.

The trouble with the new republicans is that they don't
really believe in civil society or free markets. Orville
and Wilbur Wright launched the airline industry without
taxpayer money. Now, according to the republican guardians
of the modern capitalism, it will take more than a similar
act of entrepreneurship to put us in to space... but an act
of statesmanship.

"I'm struck by... the grand idealism of the crowds... "
writes our favorite martian, David Brooks, in the NYTimes.
"It's sort of inspiring in this cold Iowa winter to see at
least some Americans who have preserved, despite decades of
discouragement, a stubborn faith in politics... "

Yes, thank God the rubes haven't caught on!

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Overheard in a British Pub:

"Did you hear where President Bush is headed next?"

"No... where?"

"Well, he's decided Mars isn't far enough. He's going to
the Sun."

"The Sun? How is that possible... wouldn't the shuttle burn
up?"

"Oh, that's no problem... he says they'll go at night."

Anzeichen von Schwäche - achten Sie auf Gold!

von Jochen Steffens

Die amerikanischen Indizes zeigen erste deutliche Anzeichen von
Schwäche. Noch fehlt (wie schon so oft in dieser Rallye) die
Bestätigung. Das hat auch diesmal wieder einen fundamentalen
Hintergrund. Am Mittwoch findet die nächste Zinsentscheidung der
amerikanischen Notenbank (FED) statt. Offenbar scheinen einige Anleger
vor dieser Entscheidung Teilgewinne zu sichern. Der Hintergrund: Es
geht die Sorge um, dass die FED diesmal einen Hinweis auf eine
Änderung des amerikanischen Leitzins gibt. Mit einer Zinsänderung
rechnet im Moment nahezu keiner der Analysten. Selbst die
Devisenmärkte reagieren im Vorfeld auf die Sitzung der amerikanischen
Nationalbank, der Dollar zeigt sich heute morgen etwas stärker.

Doch ist diese Sorge unbegründet? Nur bedingt. Es gibt einige
überlegenswerte Gründe, die für einen Hinweis auf eine Anhebung der
Zinsen sprechen würden. Allgemein wird davon ausgegangen, dass die FED
im näheren zeitlichen Umfeld der Wahl keine Zinsänderungen beschließen
wird, um nicht auf den Wahlkampf einzuwirken. Mit entsprechenden
Kommentaren hat die FED am Mittwoch vielleicht das letzte Mal eine
Chance, den Markt zu beeinflussen, bevor die heiße Phase des
US-Wahlkampfes beginnt.

Natürlich wäre es ein genialer Schachzug, genau jetzt einen Hinweis
auf eine mögliche Zinsanhebung abzugeben. Die FED würde damit die
aktuelle Überhitzung an den Märkten etwas abkühlen. Gleichzeitig
könnte sie betonen, dass vor der Wahl mit keiner Zinsänderung zu
rechnen sei, um dem Markt Sicherheit zu geben. Eine kurze und heftige
Abwärtsreaktion der Märkte mit anschließender Stabilisierung dürfte
die Folge sein.

Doch es gibt genauso gute Gründe, die dafür sprechen, die Zinsen
weiter niedrig zu halten und auch nichts Gegenteiliges zu behaupten.
Die Inflationsrate in den USA ist noch nicht angesprungen. Der
Konkurrenzkampf drückt auf die Preise. Lediglich die Rohstoffpreise
und damit die Energiekosten sind gestiegen. Die Kapazitätsauslastung
ist immer noch niedrig und die Lagerbestände steigen wieder leicht.
Auch der US-Arbeitsmarkt zeigt immer noch keine deutlichen Anzeichen
von Erholung. Das Außenhandelsdefizit kann fast nur über einen
schwächeren Dollar abgebaut werden. Das sind die schlagkräftigen
Argumente.

Ich bin sehr gespannt, ob sich die FED zu einer Äußerung hinreißen
lässt. Ich weiß, was sie tun sollte, aber ich weiß nicht, ob sie das
auch tun wird.

Derweil macht Gold das, was es soll: Es fällt weiter (zumindest heute
morgen) Das ist gut so. Heute hat Gold die 405 Dollar Marke unterboten
- konnte sich zwar danach wieder etwas erholen, aber es kann gut sein,
dass wir bald die 400 Dollar oder sogar die 390 Dollar noch einmal
sehen werden. In diesem Bereich wird sich ein weiterer Einstieg in
eine längerfristig ausgelegte Goldposition wieder lohnen. Am
sinnvollsten sind für langfristig orientierte Anleger dabei
währungsgesicherte Zertifikate. Das heißt, diese Zertifikate sind
gegen Devisenkapriolen abgesichert. So verlieren Sie kein Geld, falls
der Dollar weiter Schwäche zeigt. Denn sogar der altbekannte
Devisenguru George Soros geht aktuell davon aus, dass der Dollar
weiter fällt.

Ein anderes Thema: Gerade hat Howard Dean, Anwärter auf die
US-Präsidentenkandidatur, gegen Alan Greenspan gewettert. Er warf Alan
Greenspan vor, zu politisch geworden zu sein und eine zu große Nähe
zur amtierenden Regierung zu haben. Aus diesem Grund forderte er die
Ablösung von Alan Greenspan. Begründet hat er seine Ansicht: Alan
Greenspan habe zu wenig das immense Haushaltsdefizit kritisiert und
zudem die Steuererleichterung unterstützt, die lediglich den Reichen
zu Gute kam. Howard Dean, einstmals aussichtsreichster Kandidat der
Demokraten, verliert zunehmend gegen seine Konkurrenten. Besonders
seitdem er sich bei einem etwas misslungen Auftritt mit einem "Dean
Scream" (Dean Schrei) den Spott der Medien zugezogen hat. Ich denke,
in diesem Zusammenhang sollte man diesen Angriff sehen. Trotzdem ein
interessanter Gedanken-Ansatz.

Auf der Spitze des Berges

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

"Wann und wie wird dieser gewaltige Humbug enden?"

Der "King Report" stellt diese Frage ... dieselbe Frage, die mich fast
jeden Tag unterhält.

Wir sind auf die Spitze des Berges geklettert. Niemals zuvor waren in
den USA die Schulden, das Selbstvertrauen und die Selbstzufriedenheit
so groß. Die Schulden (private und öffentliche Haushalte und
Unternehmen zusammengenommen) haben das Dreifache der gesamten
Wirtschaftsleistung übertroffen - das ist mehr als doppelt so viel wie
"normal". Unter der Bush-Administration wachsen die Staatsausgaben so
schnell wie seit 50 Jahren nicht mehr ... während die Steuern gesenkt
werden. Die Immobilienpreise steigen in vielen Teilen der USA 5 bis 10
Mal so schnell wie die allgemeine Inflation.

"Der Immobilienmarkt ist weiterhin der Wachstumsmotor der Wirtschaft",
so eine Schlagzeile vom Wochenende. Derzeit liegt die Zahl der
Neubauten in den USA bei Werten, die wir seit 1978 nicht mehr gesehen
hatten.

Aber kann der Immobilienmarkt der Wachstumsmotor der Wirtschaft sein?
Häuser sind letztlich ein Verbrauchsgut. Die Amerikaner "konsumieren"
also mehr Häuser ... genauso wie sie mehr Autos oder mehr Fernseher
konsumieren.

Wenn die Chinesen jemals herausfinden sollten, wie man Fertighäuser
herstellt, dann haben die USA ein großes Problem. Aber derzeit ist ein
Boom am amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt gleichbedeutend mit einem Boom
am US-Arbeitsmarkt. Und - natürlich: Wenn die Immobilienpreise
steigen, dann können die Amerikaner ihre Hypotheken auf bestehende
Immobilien erhöhen, um dieses Geld auszugeben! Steuer- und
Zinssenkungen haben es ihnen leichter gemacht, mehr Geld auszugeben.
Kurzfristig.

Deshalb konsumiert der durchschnittliche Amerikaner von allem mehr ...
während er so hohe monatliche Kosten wie nie zuvor hat ... und so
schnell wie nie zuvor Richtung Pleite geht ... während er glaubt, dass
er reich wird.

Was soll man davon halten? Die Luft muss auf diesen Höhen so dünn
sein, dass die Leute begonnen haben, zu halluzinieren ... sie stellen
sich Dinge vor.

Richard Russell hat mir einige Zahlen genannt, um zu zeigen, wie tief
der Fall sein kann:

Auf dem Boden eines Bärenmarktes haben die Aktien niedrige
Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnisse (KGVs) und hohe Dividendenrenditen. So hatte
zum Beispiel 1949 die durchschnittliche Aktie ein KGV von weniger als
6, und die Dividendenrendite lag bei 7,6 %. Das nächste Tief kam im
Jahr 1974, als das KGV auf 7,5 fiel und die Dividendenrendite 5,1 %
erreichte. 1980 war wieder ein Boden erreicht, mit einem
durchschnittlichen KGV von 6,8 und einer Dividendenrendite von 5,7 %.
Zwei Jahre später stand das KGV unter 8, die Dividendenrendite bei
über 6 %.

Heute glauben die Investoren, dass sie im Oktober 2002 einen Boden
gesehen hatten. Aber da lagen das KGV bei 33 und die Dividendenrendite
bei 1,8 %. Ich glaube nicht, dass dies ein wirklicher Boden eines
Bärenmarktes war.

Jetzt zu Addison mit mehr News:

Spekulationsblase am US-Immobilienmarkt

von unserem Korrespondenten Addison Wiggin

An der Wall Street kämpfen weiterhin "Hoffnung" und "Gefahr"
gegeneinander. Besonders interessant finde ich derzeit die Entwicklung
beim Währungspaar "Euro/Dollar". In den letzten drei Monaten haben die
Zentralbanken rund um die Welt pro Tag 1,2 Milliarden Dollar
gekauft ... das waren rund 2,6 Millionen Dollar pro Minute. Und
dennoch ist der Dollar seit September gegenüber den Währungen seiner
größten Handelspartner um 6,5 % gefallen (gegenüber einem Währungskorb
dieser Währungen).

Wenn die japanische Zentralbank weiterhin soviel Dollar kauft, dann
wird sie in 2004 laut der Londoner MoneyWeek für den Gegenwert von 120
Billionen Yen Dollar kaufen. Das wären 1,13 Billionen Dollar, oder 33
Mal das gesamte Netto-Vermögen von Bill Gates! Aber die
Nippon-Billionen haben den Anstieg des Yen gegenüber dem Dollar in den
letzten Monaten nicht verhindern können.

Währenddessen will der amerikanische Senator Charles Schumer,
Vollidiot aus New York, chinesische Importe mit 27,5 % Zoll belegen,
als Strafe dafür, dass - halten Sie sich fest - die Chinesen so viele
Dollar horten (woher bekommen sie denn diese Dollar?).

Eines der größeren Probleme des Dollars ist die Tatsache, dass die
US-Regierung derzeit das Geldausgeben der gesamten Nation ermuntert -
ein Geldausgeben, das an einen betrunkenen Matrosen erinnert. "In der
ganzen Nation ist die Wirtschaft stark", so Präsident Bush letzte
Woche. "Der Immobilienmarkt ist stark, die Inflation ist niedrig ...
die Dinge passieren." Natürlich passieren Dinge. Um mit Warren Buffett
zu sprechen: "Wenn ich Billionen Dollar ausgeben würde, dann könnte
ich auch Dinge passieren lassen."

Die Strategie scheint ziemlich einfach zu sein: Die Zinsen niedrig
lassen, die Steuern senken (nicht die Ausgeben senken, Gott behüte),
und wenn es der Wirtschaft besser geht und neue Jobs geschaffen
werden ... dann die neuen Einkommen besteuern. Et voilà, alles wäre
super. Aber - wie ich schon oft geschrieben habe: es gibt keinen
klaren Trend dafür, dass neue Jobs geschaffen werden. In der
Zwischenzeit beten die kleinen Hausbesitzer, dass der Immobilienmarkt
weiter stark bleiben wird. Ich frage: Was ist mit den Staatsausgaben?
Warum werden die nicht gesenkt?

Denn nur den Immobilienmarkt als Wachstumsmotor der Wirtschaft zu
haben ... ob das so gut ist? Der Analyst Dan Denning meint dazu: "Der
Immobilienmarkt erinnert mich an den Markt für Technologieaktien im
Jahr 1999", schreibt er. "Als man damals nur den Hauch von Kritik
äußerte, dann würde man aus dem Raum gelacht, oder es wurde einem
einfach ein Vogel gezeigt. Und heute kann sich niemand vorstellen,
dass das, was wir sehen, die hyperbolische Phase einer
Kreditgefütterten Spekulationsblase am US-Immobilienmarkt ist, und
dass diese desaströse Konsequenzen für fast jeden Beteiligten haben
wird."

George W. Bush: Blinder in einem Raum voll Tauber

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner in Paris

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Der Hintergrund der japanischen Probleme

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

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