Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • Karl


    Mir sind keine Statistiken zum Oelschiefer, oder Oelsand bekannt.
    Befasse mich nur am Rande mit Oel. Trotzdem wäre es sicher möglich, dass weiter steigende Oelpreise dieser Art von Oel-Produktion zum Durchbruch verhelfen könnte.


    Dem Kern Deiner Aussage, dass Oel in Europa nach wie vor sehr billig ist, wenn man die extremen steuerlichen Belastungen, und die grossen Gewinnmargen der Oelkonzerne, und Benzinfirmen in Abzug bringen würde, kann ich mich voll anschliessen. Trotzdem einen Preis von 100 Dollar pro Fass Oel finde ich dann schon bedeutend zu hoch. Wenn ich hier in Thailand Benzin tanke, kostet mich der Liter Bleifrei95 ca. 18 THB (0.35 Euro). Die hiesige Regierung subventioniert bereits zum zweiten mal, seit der Zeit vor dem letzten Irak Krieg, die Benzinpreise, weil diese "hohen" Preise den Wirtschaftsaufschwung gefärden könnten, und vor allem für die in der Landwirtschaft tätigen Bevölkerung existenziell bedrohend wirken könnte. Ohne Subventionen wären die Preise bereits ca. 10% teurer.


    Was aus Umweltschutz Gründen vielleicht in Europa sinnvoll wäre, ein minder Verbrauch an fossilen Brennstoffen, durch höhere Preise für Oel, und Kohle, ist eben aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen, vor allem in Entwicklungs, oder Schwellen Ländern überhaupt nicht praktikabel. Wobei ich selbst, noch höhere Benzinpreise in Europa für mehr als nur gefählich für die dortige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung halte.


    Oel dürfte so oder so, aus fundamentalen Gründen (Oelverknappung, Vorräte gehen zu Ende) nach und nach teurer werden, und die westlichen Industrieländer werden, ob sie wollen, oder nicht, auf alternative Energiequellen umstellen müssen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.derfonds.net/grafik/grafik_logo_derfonds.jpg]


    http://www.derfonds.net/invest…rikNr=329&intNewsNr=81476


    Dienstag, 27. April 2004 15:03

    Plus 100 Prozent mit Gold-Fonds


    „Jetzt ist eine gute Zeit, um in Gold-Fonds einzusteigen“, meint Martin Siegel, Fondsmanager des PEH-Q-Goldmines (WKN 986 366). DER FONDS.com fragte ihn, warum und wollte sein Erfolgsrezept wissen. Siegels PEH-Q-Goldmines ist mit einem Plus von 165, 1 Prozent über drei Jahre der zweitbeste Fonds über alle Kategorien in der Morningstar-Statistik.

    „DER FONDS.com: Wie geht es an den Goldmärkten weiter?


    Martin Siegel: Wir befinden uns nach wie vor in einem Aufwärtstrend. Die Schulden der Haushalte und Banken weltweit sind nicht in den Griff zu bekommen. Außerdem sind jetzt schon erhebliche Probleme bei den Sozialsystemen sichtbar. Die Versicherungssysteme werden Pleite machen. Die größten Probleme hat derzeit Japan, gefolgt von Europa und den USA. Das alles macht Gold sehr attraktiv.


    DER FONDS.com: Im Januar ging es aber steil bergab.


    Siegel: Das war eine Reaktion auf die Gewinne des letzten Jahres. Die Kurse der Goldminen fielen dabei um bis zu 30 Prozent. Doch der Aufwärtstrend bleibt erhalten. Daran ändert auch der Ausverkauf in der vergangenen Woche nichts. Nun stabilisieren sich die Kurse wieder, darum ist jetzt ein idealer Einstiegszeitpunkt.


    DER FONDS.com: Wie viel Potenzial haben Gold-Fonds?


    Siegel: 2004 kann der Goldpreis auf 480 bis 500 Dollar pro Unze steigen. Derzeit steht er bei 398 Dollar. Langfristig sehe ich ihn sogar bei 600 Dollar. Goldminenaktien können damit in diesem Jahr um 50 bis 100 Prozent zulegen. Das gleiche gilt für Gold-Fonds.


    DER FONDS.com: Was ist ihr Erfolgsrezept?


    Siegel: Ich verfolge einen sehr konsequenten Ansatz. So setze ich nur auf fundamental unterbewertete Aktien und achte dabei stark auf Sicherheit. Das bedeutet, ich kaufe vor allem Dividendentitel. Die meisten davon finde ich momentan in Australien, dort sind 50 Prozent meines Portfolios investiert. Dieser Markt wird kaum analysiert, weil er sehr dünn ist. Es gibt kaum große Marktführer, und man muss sofort in Titel aus der zweiten Reihe investieren.


    DER FONDS.com: Was unterscheidet ihren Gold-Fonds von der Konkurrenz?


    Siegel: Fonds, die indexorientiert investieren, haben diese Titel nicht im Portfolio und müssen oft auf fundamental schlechter bewertete Aktien setzen. Die Gold-Fonds von Merrill Lynch oder AIG beispielsweise fahren jedoch einen ähnlichen Ansatz wie ich, vielleicht sind sie nicht ganz so konsequent. Oft ist es allerdings einfach Glück, wenn einer um ein paar Prozentpunkte besser läuft.


    INFO: Die PEH Wertpapier AG (WKN 620 140) ist aus der 1981 gegründeten PEH Wertpapier Research GmbH, Oberursel, hervorgegangen und seit 1999 am Geregelten Markt Berlin notiert. Die PEH bietet neben der Betreuung institutioneller Anleger auch fondsbasierte Vermögensverwaltungskonzepte an und legt zudem eigene Investmentfonds auf. PEH steht für die Initialen des Firmengründers Peter Edgar Huber.


    DER FONDS.com 27.04.04 al

  • Bema Gold Corporation: Amendment to 2004 First Quarter Results..

    2004/04/27 16:33:35


    Conference Call/Webcast Time


    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Apr 27, 2004 (CCNMatthews via COMTEX) -- Bema Gold Corporation (TSX:BGO, AMEX:BGO, AIM:BAU) will release its first quarter results before the North American markets open on Friday, May 14, 2004.


    Clive Johnson, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of Bema will host a conference call and webcast to discuss the year end results on Friday, May 14, 2004 at 5:30 am PST / 8:30 EDT.


    You may access the call by calling the operator at 416-695-5261 or toll free 1-877-461-2816 prior to the scheduled start time. A playback version of the call will be available for one week after the call at 416-695-5275 or North America toll free 1-888-509-0082.


    This meeting is being webcast by CCBN and can be accessed from Bema Gold's web site at http://www.bema.com.
    Bema Gold Corporation is an intermediate gold producer with operating mines and development projects on four continents. The Company's objective is to increase annual gold production to over 1 million ounces from existing assets by the year 2007.


    The webcast is also being distributed over CCBN's Investor Distribution Network to both institutional and individual investors. Individual investors can listen to the call through CCBN's individual investor center at http://www.companyboardroom.com or by visiting any of the investor sites in CCBN's Individual Investor Network. Institutional investors can access the call via CCBN's password-protected event management site, StreetEvents (http://www.streetevents.com).



    CONTACT: Bema Gold Corporation Ian MacLean Manager, Investor Relations (604) 681-8371 or Toll Free: 1-800-316-8855 (604) 681-6209 (FAX) Website: http://www.bema.com



    Copyright (C) 2004, CCNMatthews. All rights reserved.



    NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews -0-

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/images/logo_article.gif]


    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/04/28/061.html


    Gold Output Soars


    MOSCOW (Bloomberg) -- Gold production rose 14 percent in the first quarter as recoveries from scrap metal and by-product mining soared, Interfax reported Tuesday, citing the country's Union of Gold Producers.


    Gold output climbed to 25 tons from 22 tons a year earlier, the news service said, citing the union. Direct mining of gold fell 0.9 percent to 18.9 tons. Recoveries from scrap more then tripled to 3.1 tons and output from mining for other metals jumped 52 percent to 3 tons.


    The Krasnoyarsk region in East Siberia mined most of the gold, producing 6.2 tons, Interfax said. Khabarovsk region in the same area raised output to 4.5 tons and Magadan in the Far East produced 2.7 tons.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]


    http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4960465&action=article


    Breaking news:


    2004-04-27 19:28 GMT:


    Gold futures end at eight-week closing high near $400


    SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- June gold closed at $399.10 an ounce -- an eight-week closing high -- up $2.50 for the session. Kevin Kerr, editor of the Kwest Market Edge newsletter said the metal's move was mostly technical in nature, though it did benefit from a "flight to quality" effect. July silver closed up 6.2 cents at $6.254 an ounce. June palladium climbed 1.8 percent to close at $277.95 an ounce and July platinum added 2.4 percent to end at $833.50 an ounce, but July copper fell 0.45 to close at $1.238 per pound. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com .

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://imgs.xinhuanet.com/icon/english/03/xhw_s.gif]


    http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl…04/27/content_1443665.htm


    India's gold production up in fiscal 2003/04

    http://www.chinaview.cn 2004-04-27 23:30:08


    NEW DELHI, April 27 (Xinhuanet) -- India produced 10,198 kilograms of gold during the fiscal year 2003-04, up 20.76 percent from 8,445 kilograms produced in the last fiscal year, said a statement Tuesday.


    The statement, issued by Press Information Bureau of India, said the volume beat the targeted production of 8,274 kilograms.


    Out of the total, Hutti Gold Mines Limited (HGML) produced 3,096 kilograms, Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) 195 kilograms and Hindustan Aluminium Company Limited (HINDALCO) 6,907 kilograms.


    However, after closure of the Bharat Gold Mines Limited (BGML) in 2001, HGML is the only one processing gold from ore stage. Public HCL and private HINDALCO process gold as a by-product while processing copper.


    In March alone, these companies produced 1,173 kilograms of gold against a target of 943 kilograms. Enditem

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.rte.ie/business/images/business_logo.gif]


    http://www.rte.ie/business/2004/0427/minco.html


    Minco advances Mexican silver project


    April 27, 2004 14:40


    Gold and silver exploration company Minco has awarded the preliminary feasibility study for its 100% owned La Laguna silver tailings project in the Zacatecas region of Mexico to Toronto-based Micon International. Micon have now started work on the study, which is expected to last some three months.


    Minco has the licence to extract 14 million tonnes of tailings from the Mexican lake and continues to evaluate the surrounding land based tailings dumps. These are estimated to be 27 million tonnes within a five mile radius of the lake.


    Minco plans to produce about 3.5 million ounces of silver a year, with an annual revenue of $21m for at least seven years.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/images/ccnlogo.gif]


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/images/logos/highriver.gif]


    APRIL 27, 2004 - 12:35 ET


    High River Gold Participates In Jilbey Gold Financing


    TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Apr 27, 2004) - (TSX:HRG) -

    Today High River Gold Mines Ltd. announced that it took up 13.9%
    ($337,500) of a financing which Jilbey Gold Exploration Ltd.
    (TSXV-JLB) reported on April 26, 2004 for gross proceeds of
    $2,425,614, to be used to advance Jilbey's gold exploration
    projects in Burkina Faso. The Company's participation enables
    High River to meet its corporate objective of holding a minimum
    10% equity interest in Jilbey.


    weiter....


    http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0427074n.html

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    April 27 - Gold $398.40 up $2.60 - Silver $6.21 up 5 cents


    Gold And Silver Continue To Rebound, Poised To Move Much Higher


    Zitat

    The easiest period in a crisis situation is actually the battle itself. The most difficult is the period of indecision -- whether to fight or run away. And the most dangerous period is the aftermath. It is then, with all his resources spent and his guard down, that an individual must watch out for dulled reactions and faulty judgment.... Richard Nixon


    GO GATA!!!!!


    Once again strength in the overseas physical markets took gold $2 higher and silver 10 cents higher as we came into the Comex opening. After the prerequisite sell-off, in which the opening gaps were filled, gold and silver moved steadily back up.


    According to my STALKER source, another gold physical buyer has entered the arena. It is a consortium of 20 entities which will begun to accumulate $800 million worth of bullion commencing in early May. They intend to buy $10 million at a crack depending on market conditions.


    My STALKER source also has some other goodies to bring our way. Gold buying is picking up in Europe (especially in London) because of the recent dollar STRENGTH. As the dollar moves up, the gold price moves higher too in euro/pound terms. Investors are coming to appreciate a gold bull market in their own currencies. This is The Gold Cartel’s worst nightmare, which is a reason why they crushed gold when it ran up last month to $430 without the help of dollar weakness. It now appears that run wet the appetite of foreign buyers. Thus, The Gold Cartel and price managers now lose when the dollar is either strong or weak, making their gold price suppression scheme that much more difficult. Seems these new small buyers (many of them, such as South Africans who keep money in London) will help to counteract traditional buying slackness, like the Indians, who prefer to buy gold weakness in their local currency terms.


    The huge STALKER buying itself is of Far Eastern origin. We have speculated in the past it was Chinese. However, there is a fair possibility it could be Japanese. We should know in about two weeks when the Japanese release their reserve figures. The story behind this is very intriguing and I will bring it to your attention at that time.


    The Café Sentiment Indicator on Friday, Saturday and Sunday went to the lowest in a year for a few days period, about a 3. The steady US stock market, recent bullion/silver price collapse, and steady deterioration in the shares is causing investors to shy away from the precious metals sector – a contrarian’s delight.


    The gold open interest fell 507 contracts to 250,023.


    Gold has once again closed solidly above the $390 to $395 area. If we go back to last December, we can see gold has bounced off this level 10 to 15 times and four times alone on significant corrections. The cash market comes alive down here which is aborting efforts by The Gold Cartel to break bullion down any further.


    June gold


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/64


    With the Commitment of Traders Report showing such an enormous swing by the specs, the Middle East situation worsening, the physical market so strong, and the dollar turning, gold should be poised to move sharply higher.


    The euro closed at 119.19, back slightly above its 200-day moving average of 119.12. The dollar closed down .22 to 90.63.


    A few Café members have sent some quality questions regarding silver. Some new input has come my way, which may answer a number of them.


    First, today’s action. Silver never was able to make a new high after its strong opening and remained quiet for most of the session. The silver open interest dropped 1600 contracts to 108,008. Specs continue to liquidate after the beating they took on the $2.50 rapid price drop.


    Probably the most important item I have learned is the real physical silver market is tighter now that it was 30 days ago. A SIGNIFICANT Canadian buyer paid a NICKEL over spot from their bullion dealer for their last tranche of physical silver and had to wait ONE month to receive it. That was only a month ago. NOW, the same dealer is quoting them the following terms for another size buy: a DIME over spot and they must wait THREE months for delivery.


    Meanwhile, the big fund in Europe who bought 20+ million ounces of silver still has not received delivery of their silver. Could have some serious fireworks in the days ahead if their supplier defaults!!


    These are only two entities MIDAS is reporting on. Who else is lurking out there trying to accumulate physical silver in size?


    Café members not familiar with physical/futures market trading might not understand how a market can be this tight and collapse like it did. The answer is simple. A number of entities bought physical silver for speculative purposes. As we are now working on the margin, meaning the market is so tight a withdrawal of a good amount of supply can influence the market greatly, these short-term physical silver holders hold significant influence. This buying, which tied up available supply at the time, helped propel silver over $8.


    After silver took out $8, some of them let go of their supply. Maybe they planned to do so in advance. Others let go when silver tanked. Suddenly, the market was not so tight as this supply hit the market within a limited time frame. However, the price drop has attracted other value buyers such as the Indians who are mopping up this newly available physical. In addition, certain sellers who dumped their silver above $8 are likely to re-enter the picture again soon on the buy side.


    Added to the silver price drop was the selling by The Gold Cartel and other dealers who bombed the market ahead of today’s option expiry, to protect naked call positions. This is now behind us. Silver moved to where it did, up to $8.46, for good reason. The supply/demand silver dynamics are such that the price is going to have to soar to ration a dwindling supply in the months and years to come. The move higher was a warning shot to those shorts who continue to remain that way and cannot deliver.


    We have learned how quickly the remaining available silver supply can disappear. It will happen again in the months to come. The silver price managers feel confident to continue their dangerous games as long as the Comex warehouse stocks remain where they are. Whether this is a false security is another matter. Once those stocks begin to disappear, the crooks will have no fallback. Panic could set in.


    We should see silver move up here again, regardless of whether buyers pull the plug on the Comex stocks. That might come later. However, should they be substantially withdrawn at the same time as silver begins its to spike, we will see $10 silver before you can blink!


    There has been a great deal of discussion these past weeks about "the carry trade" – in which the big money crowd borrows money from the Fed at 1%, or at slight premiums, and then invests it in stocks, commodities, foreign currencies, etc. The issue of the Fed raising rates spurred a debate of whether the trade was dead and how much it might effect the multi-year commodity boom.


    Certainly the hedge funds dumped commodities, including gold and silver, the past weeks in knee-jerk reaction to the Fed Speak. However, my guess is this was nothing more than a normal, healthy correction. Hedge funds, or no, many of the supply/demand dynamics of many commodities are just too bullish to go into any sort of deflationary, lasting retreat at this time.


    The CRB rebounded to 274.24, up 2.85. Soybeans skyrocketed 38 ½ cents to $10.03. June crude oil closed in contract high ground at $37.53, up 56 cents.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    India still buying


    Tuesday, April 27, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $9.60, PM $9.69, with world gold at $396.90 and $397.40. Continuing well above legal import level. An Indian news service suggests that gold appetite has increased because of very recent fears that the business-friendly BJP party might not do as well as expected in the on-going election. These fears took 3.6% off the stock market today. Price, however, is probably the main influence.


    Japan remains uninterested, with TOCOM speculators distracted by the white metals. The active contract did rise 15 yen, and world gold was $1.95 higher than the NY close at the end, but aggregate volume slipped 16% to equal only 15,216 Comex lots and open interest was virtually static, up the equivalent of 338 Comex lots to equal 114,110 Comex contracts. (NY yesterday was notably quiet too: only trading 22,123 lots. Open interest edged down 517 lots to 250 023.)


    Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums have roughly halved since gold was down at $390 late last week, but still appear high, just under $4. Volumes, however, are quite low. There has never been any visible trace of significant Chinese involvement in gold – in marked contrast to their role in Platinum.


    Several of the bullion bank commentators are now acknowledging the persistence of physical offtake, and becoming a little optimistic. UBS is representative:


    Zitat

    "Gold is showing signs of resilience above the important $390/oz support level and this, together with the large liquidation seen on Comex but also in the OTC market has made us more positive about the near term outlook for gold."


    However, enough selling was forthcoming in NY to cap bullion and produce a classical sell-off into the close.


    JB

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The US stock market was more affected later in the day more by the commotion in Iraq and Syria than by some early good housing numbers. The DOW rose 33 to 10,478, while the DOG dropped 4 to 2032.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $9.25 Billion in repos today April 27th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to sharply rise to $45.13 Billion.


    We now clearly see the DOW's 30-day moving average (green trace) move back up as predicted and at this hour (10:30 AM) the DOW tracks up at 10,500.


    Shorting this index (or any stock in it) at this moment would be a losing proposition as the Fed's primary dealers have the upper hand. It is far better to be long physical gold at this moment. The basis for this position is the DIVG's clustered points now around 350 residing at a cycle low while the DIVG 200-day moving average is in a man-made linear up slope that currently yields a 15.4% annualized gain (if it lasts). Indeed, the DIVG's 200-day ma up slope retreat by the Fed may be signaling what they quietly believe to be the true inflation rate...15.4%.


    Gold share anomalies


    Judging by the numerous investment house downgrades of Goldcorp that followed its recent announcement to again retain bullion, there may be a concerted effort by friends of the Fed to short the "large cap" gold shares. This isn't true however, for the smaller exploration firms.


    In any event, the holder of physical gold is immune to such government interventions and thereby retains a powerful independence.
    Mike


    The DIVG chart will be updated later this evening at:


    http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis


    More from Mike:


    Battle Report: DIVG, Fed keeps retreating in linear fashion


    Hi Bill:


    The news from the DIVG continues to be encouraging and suggests a strong buy signal for physical gold.


    I have reported that the Fed has set up a linear retreat mode that can only be seen through the lens of the DIVG 200-day moving average. The wonderfully straight upward sloping line represents the hand of government intervention now in retreat. Line like this don't occur in randomly or seasonally traded markets. The linear pattern is the equivalent of seeing a razor straight line on Mars.


    An crucially important consequence of this unambiguous finding is that the DIVG itself is being altered daily through MCDI levels and PM fixes to create the linear 200-day moving average that we see as a yellow line.


    Recall that the DIVG is the absolute value of gold as measured against the major currencies. The 200-day ma up slope means that gold is rising against the major currencies.


    We can act upon the up and down DIVG patterns because we now know that the 200-day moving average trend is set on a line by the Fed and its acolytes. Thus, when the daily pattern is down as it has been for ten days or so, we know that it will rise in order to maintain the up slope in the DIVG's 200-day ma.


    The buying opportunity is right now as the DIVG is soon set to rise in order to maintain the up slope established early in January 2004. If one were to trade in and out of the metal then the sell indicator will come after a sharp DIVG rise to say 380 or thereabouts.


    Jim Sinclair is pounding the table but my interventional analysis has nothing to do with his methods and yet they are telling the gold community the same thing...buy!


    My previous prediction of DIVG = 353 as the main dwell point has turned out to be 350, where we sit today.


    The Fed is still in retreat. They can't afford to lose any more gold at their original loss rates. Their "plan" is disintegrating and I am especially encouraged by the numerous anti-gold articles that have been recently squeezed out of the mainstream financial press.
    Mike



    Houston’s Dan Norcini:


    Hi Bill:

    Remember yesterday when I spoke about the need to see some stronger volume on this rally from off the $390 region near the 200DMA. Looks like we are finally getting it. Yesterday's volume was miserable and therefore the action was suspect but today's is looking very healthy and strong, almost double that of yesterday's thus far. There is no doubt that the move into the 398 region spooked the new shorts out and has emboldened the bulls. If we can muster a close over $403 or so, we will really see a pickup in volume. So far, so good.

    Dan


    From The King Report last evening:


    Yesterday’s banter also hailed the new home sales report for its greater than expected sales. At least a few accounts noted that sharply rising interest rates forced people to buy. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.45% in March from Feb’s 5.63%. The 5.45% was the lowest average rate since June’s 5.23%. Last week the figure hit 5.94%.


    Not to be the usual spoil sport, but the details of the report went largely unreported. The median price of new homes fell to $201,400 from $210,000 in February. And that’s with record sales?!?! It confirms our warning that housing starts are almost twice as much as sales; and that portends a huge overhang of homes, especially this late in an extended cycle. Though the supply of new homes fell to 3.7 months, the housing start number shows an enormous amount of new homes in the pipeline.


    The report states that new home prices rose 8.8% in the last year. But that’s not accounted for in CPI…Few noticed the 35k downward revision for February new home sales.


    But what about the future, especially with rates rising? The Mortgage Bankers Assn refinancing index crashed 30.7% last week, the biggest drop since the June bond debacle. New loan requests fell 9.5%.


    Weyerhaeuser reported wonderful Q1 earnings due to surging prices for its lumber and structural panels. However, Weyerhaeuser said it is experiencing transportation problems that make it "increasingly challenging to meet customer needs." Bottlenecks are plaguing parts of the US and much of China.


    -END-


    Gold supportive news:


    OPEC May Boost Target Price by 30%, Purnomo Says


    April 27 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, which pumps a third of the world's crude oil, may raise its target price by 30 percent because the weak dollar has reduced purchasing power and boosted inflation in member states, the group's president said.


    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is studying whether to increase its four-year-old target range, which stands at $22 to $28 a barrel, Purnomo Yusgiantoro told reporters in Jakarta. OPEC's price index, which covers seven crude oils, has averaged more than $28 for the past 12 months and now stands at $32.87. –END-


    Gold producer problems – first, another sign gold supply is waning:


    SYDNEY (AFX-ASIA) - Lihir Gold Ltd said first-quarter gold production was 112,336 ounces, down substantially on the previous quarter and the same quarter a year earlier due to both scheduled and unscheduled plant shutdowns.


    In a statement, the single-asset company which has Rio Tinto Ltd as its largest shareholder, said the loss of production caused unit costs, a high proportion of which are fixed, to increase significantly during the quarter.


    –END-


    Then, Barrick Gold receives some poetic justice. Deutsche Bank, of all people, downgraded Barrick because of their hedgebook loss.


    Chuck checks in with Groundhog day, 2004.


    Irealize that it is a little trite to invoke the Bill Murray comedy, "Groundhog Day" when every subsequent day is exactly like the previous one, but I can't think of a better analogy to the current gold share and stock market situation.


    The continual malaise in the share market even when gold has risen can be disconcerting unless you believe that this is the extreme action found usually at turning points. If you go back to the very bottom of the stock market in 1974 you will find such a strange occurrence. The stock market made its low in October and then bounced about 15% only to collapse at the end of the year, and that was the last real bear market since then. In contrast, the gold shares made their highs at the exact time and then sold off sharply for the next three weeks, thus ending their bull move of the previous three years.


    The bizarre action in the gold shares as they sell off every day from 3 to 4 during which the stock market always seems to rally strongly shows the abiding correlation between stocks and gold. It is no coincidence since they represent two different theologies or philosophies to be more precise. Gold bad, stocks good: gold bad, stocks good.


    That is why, even through the frustrating daily rituals such as this one, I continue to believe that we are in the very infancy of the gold bull market. Why does this weird action continue day after day? My take continues to be that we are in the most historic of times, and that would explain this appearance that the gold shares can never go up and the stock market can never go down. But this was the appearance also as we entered the new millennium. Who could have imagined that the Nasdaq would decline by 75% and the HUI would rally 500-600% at that time?


    Chuck


    Couldn’t agree more Chuck. Awhile ago I regretted using the phrase, "Mindless Selling" in my MIDAS headline. Not anymore. Today’s gold share selling IS mindless. While gold and silver continue to rebound nicely after their recent beatings, the gold shares continue to fade into oblivion. Just as the Comex has gone into a disconnect to some degree with the physical gold/silver world, so have the gold shares gone into a disconnect with the precious metals themselves. The XAU sank 1.09 to 87.45, while the HUI dropped 2.01 to 193.32, a new low close for the move.


    Last October, with gold at $370 and silver at $5, the HUI was at 200.


    HUI


    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    It seems more and more advisors are shunning the gold shares, or continue to put out warnings, including the venerable Richard Russell. A Café member notes:


    I don’t know if you saw Richard Russell advise to his subscriber to consider selling their precious metal shares? (although personally he is not going to sell). I remember that in the peak of the panic in May 2002 he made a call to sell all PM shares. He got me frightened at the time. Days later the market started to rise. I wonder if the same will happen now (I have a lot of respect to him and love his articles but no one is immune from fears).


    "He is one of many. As one advisor after another warns about the weakening gold shares and what could be behind it, the technical picture deteriorates, losses mount, and this begets more selling in a self-fulfilling prophesy. It has become MINDLESS the way I see it.".


    The gold fundamentals continue to be a "10+++" and actually get better by the week. In addition, there is no way (IMO) the Bush Administration and Fed are going to allow major debt problems to rule the day ahead of the coming election. They will move heaven and earth before they let that happen. We will see super inflation first, $600 gold first. All of this will have the gold shares going BONKERS!


    Each to his own, however, what buying opportunities the shares have become. They remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://img.stern.de/img/logo_stern_de.gif]


    http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft…x.html?id=523223&nv=hp_rt


    Gutachten


    Bye, bye Aufschwung


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://img.stern.de/_content/5…23223/clement-250_250.jpg]© Arne Dedert/DPA Hiobsbotschaften für den Wirtschaftsminister


    Die sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute legen ihr neues Gutachten vor. Wie bereits bekannt geworden war, werden die Wissenschaftler ihre Prognose für das Wirtschaftswachstum voraussichtlich nach unten korrigieren. Für das laufende Jahr halten sie nur noch einen Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) zwischen 1,4 und 1,5 Prozent für realistisch. Im Herbst hatten sie noch ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,7 Prozent vorhergesagt. Für das nächste Jahr erwarten die Institute eine Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von ebenfalls unter 2 Prozent


    Sparpolitik sei verfehlt


    Nach Überzeugung von Peter Bofinger, Mitglied im Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, wird Deutschland nur mit einer nachhaltigen Stärkung der Binnennachfrage in den nächsten Jahren ein Wachstum von 1,5 bis 2,0 Prozent erreichen. Bofinger sagte den "Nürnberger Nachrichten", eine zentrale Rolle komme dabei dem Staat zu, der mit einer Verstetigung der öffentlichen Etats und einem jährlichen Ausgabenzuwachs von ein bis zwei Prozent die Binnennachfrage stabilisieren sollte - auch auf Kosten einer vorübergehend höheren Verschuldung. Die Sparpolitik der öffentlichen Hand halte er für den falschen Weg.


    Erneute Verletzung des Stabilitätspaktes

    Einem Bericht der "Financial Times Deutschland" zufolge erwarten die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute zudem, dass Deutschland mit seinem Haushaltsdefizit auch im kommenden Jahr über der im EU- Vertrag festgelegten Grenze von drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) liegt. Demnach sagen die Institute in ihrem Frühjahrsgutachten für 2005 einen Fehlbetrag von 3,5 Prozent des BIP voraus. Zudem werde erwartet, dass die Zahl der Arbeitslosen in diesem Jahr erstmals seit 2001 wieder sinken wird, schreibt die Zeitung weiter. Sie gehe von 4,376 Millionen 2003 auf 4,332 Millionen 2004 zurück. Im kommenden Jahr soll sie weiter auf 4,276 Millionen sinken.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/images/ft_logo_homepage.gif]


    http://www.ftd.de/ub/in/1083070796979.html?nv=hptn


    Aus der FTD vom 28.4.2004

    Opec erwägt höhere Öl-Preisspanne


    Von Sebastian Sachs und Andreas Krosta, Frankfurt


    Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) erwägt eine Erhöhung ihrer Preisspanne für Öl. Ihre Überlegungen haben bei Ökonomen die Befürchtung geweckt, das Wirtschaftswachstum in der Euro-Zone werde durch höhere Energiekosten niedriger ausfallen.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/opecchef.jpg]Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Opec-Präsident (Bloomberg)


    Opec-Präsident Purnomo Yusgiantoro sagte am Dienstag, das seit vier Jahren bestehende Band für den Opec-Referenzpreis von 22 bis 28 $ pro Barrel sei nicht mehr angemessen (ein Barrel entspricht 159 Litern). Vor dem Hintergrund der moderaten Inflationsentwicklung und der Dollar-Schwäche sei eine Anpassung nach oben angebracht und für die Konjunktur verkraftbar. Der Opec-Ölpreis berechnet sich aus einem Korb von sieben Rohölsorten aus den Mitgliedsstaaten des Kartells. Die Ölminister treffen sich das nächste Mal am 3. Juni.


    Damit geht der Opec-Chef auf Konfrontationskurs zu den Notenbankern und Finanzministern der sieben führenden Wirtschaftsnationen. Sie hatten auf ihrem Treffen am Wochenende die Opec aufgefordert, die Fördermengen zu erhöhen, um den Ölpreis zu senken. Die Benzinpreise in den USA und der Euro-Zone liegen auf hohem Niveau.


    Ölpreis wirkt auf Investitionen


    Der Europa-Chefvolkswirt der Bank of America, Holger Schmieding, rechnet mit einem Abstrich von 0,3 bis 0,4 Prozentpunkten beim Wirtschaftswachstum ab Mitte 2004 und für 2005. Noch erwartet die Europäische Zentralbank für 2004 ein Wachstum von 1,6 Prozent. 2005 soll es auf 2,2 Prozent zulegen. HypoVereinsbank-Chefvolkswirt Martin Hüfner nannte die Ölpreisentwicklung "das negative Sahnehäubchen" für die Wirtschaft. Der Chef der US-Notenbank Fed, Alan Greenspan, warnte vor den langfristigen Folgen. Hohe Energiepreise würden die Investitionsentscheidungen der Unternehmen beeinflussen.


    Ölexperten gehen davon aus, dass sich der Opec-Ölpreis auf dem jetzigen Niveau von rund 33 $ pro Barrel stabilisieren wird. "Die Opec wird mit einer Anhebung des Preisbandes ihre Politik der vergangenen Monate zementieren", sagte der Leiter der volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der Deka-Bank, Ulrich Kater. Die Notierungen in London und New York reagierten folglich nur mit moderaten Aufschlägen auf die Worte des Opec-Präsidenten.


    Saudi-Arabiens Ölminister Ali al-Naimi sagte dagegen, die Opec halte an ihrem Preisband fest. Experten warnen aber davor, seine Äußerungen überzubewerten. "Saudi-Arabien spielt ein doppeltes Spiel", sagte Deka-Bank-Expertin Sandra Ebner. Einerseits wolle man vor dem aktuellen geopolitischen Hintergrund die USA nicht brüskieren - andererseits sei auch Saudi-Arabien dafür, den Ölpreis hochzuhalten.

  • Der Meinungsvielfalt wegen!


    Trifft die Meldung des Stern
    "Bye, bye Aufschwung", oder die Meldung der Bundesregierung "Gutachten bestätigt weitere konjunkturelle Belebung der Wirtschaft in Deutschland" den Kern der Sache?


    Beide Aussagen zusammen, können ja wohl nicht gleichzeitig zutreffend sein, auch wenn sich beide Aussagen angeblich auf ein und die selbe Studie berufen.



    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bundesregierung.de/images/bpa/logo.gif]


    http://www.bundesregierung.de/…utachten-bestaetigt-w.htm


    Bundesregierung


    Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit Clement:


    "Gutachten bestätigt weitere konjunkturelle Belebung der Wirtschaft in Deutschland"

    Di, 27.04.2004

    Bundeswirtschafts- und -arbeitsminister Wolfgang Clement sieht die Bundesregierung durch das heute von den sechs wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstituten vorgelegte Gutachten zur "Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2004" in der Absicht bestätigt, auf dem Weg umfassender wirtschaftspolitischer Reformen weiter voranzuschreiten.

  • Aufschwung????


    Seit Jahren wird doch zu Anfang jedes Jahres dem gemeinen Volk ein Aufschwung versprochen, der dieses Jahr dann aber auch wirklich kommt...


    Diese Art von Volksverdummung paßt den Politikern jedoch genau ins Konzept. Was uns hier in Deutschland fehlt ist ein wenig mehr Temperament und weniger Obrigkeitsgehorsam. In Frankreich wurden einige Gesetze bereits durch Massendemonstationen wieder rückgängig gemacht. Bei uns ist das jedoch Fehlanzeige.


    Scheinbar sind bereits zu viele von Bild und Co. so eingelullt worden, daß sie blind den Medien vertrauen und sich womöglich noch freuen, daß es immerhin einen "Aufschwung" von 1,4% gibt.


    Jedoch kann man einen Aufschwung nicht durch Manipulation (ups... ich meine natürlich Anpassung) der (Arbeitsosen-) Statistik herbeirechnen. Viel mehr belügt man sich selber und vor allem das Volk.


    Dabei braucht man sich doch nur in seiner Nachbarschaft umzusehen, wieviele dort Ihren Job verloren haben, wieviele finanzielle Probleme haben, wieviele Angst davor haben, in Zukunft Ihren Job zu verlieren.


    Bestes Beispiel ist doch Siemens und die Deutsche Bank. Beide Unternehmen planen doch massive Stellenverlagerungen in Billiglohnländer ohne an die Folgen für uns alle zu denken.

  • Gold trade may reach record numbers


    Trade in gold is soaring in Korea, with first-quarter import and export figures more than double those from a year ago.


    The Korea International Trade Association said yesterday that in the first three months of the year, gold imports totaled $1.57 billion, a 129.7-percent increase from the first quarter of 2003. In weight, imports totaled more than 130 tons.


    Gold became Korea's fourth-largest import item, after crude oil, direct-circuit semiconductors and natural gas. Association officials said gold import records may be broken this year; the former yearly high was in 1997, when first-quarter imports amounted to $1.42 billion.
    Meanwhile, exports nearly tripled. Between January and March, gold exports rose 194.9 percent, to $1.47 billion, placing it eighth among domestic exports.


    Analysts attributed these increases to the government's lift of added-value taxes on gold bars and nuggets traded by craftsmen, commissioned manufacturers and wholesale dealers.


    "Gold prices rose internationally as investors sought cover from a plunging dollar," said Philip Klapwijk, an analyst based in London.


    "The 13-percent increase in gold prices compared to last year livened up the distribution market," said a senior official at LG International Corp., the largest importer of gold in Korea.


    Korea mainly imports gold from Hong Kong, England, Australia, Switzerland and China. Main export markets are Hong Kong, China, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore.


    by Wohn Dong-hee <wohn@joongang.co.kr>
    http://joongangdaily.joins.com…19098109900090509051.html

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