Beiträge von ThaiGuru

Die Richtung stimmt!

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http://www.financialexpress.co…tory.php?content_id=55304

Monday, March 22, 2004

COMMODITY WATCH

China May Take The Glitter Away From India’s Gem & Jewellery Trade

P VINOD KUMAR

CHENNAI, MARCH 21: China may take the sheen away from India’s glittering billion dollar gem and jewellery trade in the long run, according to a recent report published by rating agency ICRA. Gem and jewellery is one of the major non-traditional items in India’s export basket accounting for nearly 17 per cent of its total exports valued at $8.85 billion.

“Although India currently enjoys dominance in the world’s cut and polished diamonds market, China may emerge as a viable rival, if not in the near future, certainly in the longer term”, according the gems and jewellery sector report published by ICRA.

According to the rating agency, an increasing number of diamond processors from Israel and Belgium and even from India are making a beeline to set up manufacturing facilities in China for a variety of reasons. “Labour force in China is cheap and disciplined.

Moreover, it has high economic growth compared to India resulting in significant increase in potential customers in high income segment within the country. Besides, quality of Chinese workmanship is steadily improving. However, India still has an overwhelming advantage over China”, the report says.

China processes an estimated 2.4 million carats of diamonds per annum while India processes 180 million carats per annum. Similarly, while China has 0.02 million people working in the industry compared to India’s more than one million strong workforce. “However, in terms of manpower, China is fast emerging as the second largest diamond manufacturer”, it said.

Further, India is also facing a long-term threat from China in terms of processing technology.

“Until now, a combination of manual skill and semi-automatic machines have helped the Indian industry to maintain a leadership position. However, China with its modern and automatic facilities is today in a similar position to manufacture jewellery at competitive prices. Increased competition will force Indian industry to focus on higher-end products with the concomitant requirement of increased investment in modern technology”, it said.

The report, however, said that the outlook for India’s gem and jewellery trade remains positive since it has the comparative advantage of skilled man power combined with the adoption of leading edge technology and an increasing degree of vertical integration.

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http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/36536.html

Sunday, March 21 - 2004 at 08:32

Silver, six-year high, gold up

Silver prices headed to a six-year high of USD7.62 an ounce at the end of last week, while gold rebounded to USD411, and peaked on Wednesday at USD413.60, its highest level since February 18. Gold resumed its uptrend earlier in the week when the US dollar started to slide again.

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http://www.arabnews.com/?page=…cle=41601&d=21&m=3&y=2004

Sunday, 21, March, 2004 (30, Muharram, 1425)

Weak Dollar Sends Gold Prices Soaring

Perinea Faye, Agence France Presse

LONDON, 21 March 2004 — Oil prices gushed higher this week with US crude smashing past $38 for its highest close in 13 years, fueled by renewed fears over terrorism and shortages of US stocks.

Gold: Gold prices shot to their highest level for a month, benefiting from a weaker dollar and the metal’s status as a safe-haven in the wake of bloody bombings in Madrid and Baghdad. Gold is closely linked to the dollar, so that when the US currency suffers the price of the precious metal tends to rise. “Strong buying interest has returned to gold again, arguably for the first time since early February, fueled by the combination of security concerns following the bombings in Madrid and Baghdad and indications the massive Japanese intervention to restrain yen appreciation may be wound back,” Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

The dollar hit a four-week low against the yen and struggled against other currencies on Thursday amid increasing speculation that authorities in Tokyo would cool moves to contain the rise of the Japanese currency.

By Friday afternoon, gold prices stood at $412 an ounce on the London Bullion Market against $398 a week earlier.

Silver: Silver prices hit a new six-year high to remain above the symbolic $7 per ounce mark thanks to robust Chinese demand and buying by speculative funds.

“The performance of silver was even more impressive than gold,” Naqvi said, noting however that the precious metal’s rally was forcing some customers to seek cheaper alternatives. The silver price stood at $7.425 per ounce on the London Bullion Market on Friday against $7.205 a week earlier.

Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium fell as dealers cashed-in on the precious metals’ recent highs. “The platinum group metals, in contrast to the rest of the precious metals, have struggled for direction,” Naqvi said. Platinum prices had scaled new 24-year highs and palladium one-year bests a week earlier.

Palladium traded at $279 per ounce from $282 a week earlier on the London Platinum and Palladium Market. Platinum prices fell to $893 per ounce on Friday from $910.

Base Metals: Base metal prices headed upward thanks to a fall in stocks and strong Chinese demand.

By late Friday, three-month copper prices stood at $3,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange from $2,855 a week earlier. Three-month aluminum prices were steady at $1,671.50 per ton from $1,678. Three-month nickel prices were $14,175 per ton against $12,800. Three-month zinc prices lifted to $1,145 per ton from $1,123. Three-month lead prices climbed to $875 per ton from $855. Three-month tin prices stood at $7,950 per ton from $7,200.

Oil: Oil prices raced ahead on a market shaken by fears of renewed terrorism and shortages in stocks ahead of a planned output cut by OPEC. US crude oil prices soared above $38 to their highest close in 13 years on Wednesday.

On Friday, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery stood at $33.29 a barrel in London from $32.50 a week before. In New York, the reference light sweet crude April contract traded at 38.10 against 36.60 a week earlier.

@Wolf2001

Danke Dir für Deine Unterstützung, und Dein Interesse.

Wollte eigentlich hier in diesem Gold Forum nicht über meine Probleme bei W:O schreiben, doch nach Deinem Posting, bin ich Dir eine Antwort schuldig.

Meine Probleme bei W:O begannen damit, dass ich in unregelmässigen Abständen wiederholt die Seite von W:O, von Thailand aus nicht erreichen konnte. Manchmal dauerten diese Ausfälle nur mehrere Minuten, manchmal aber gleich Stunden. In der Woche vor meinem letzten Posting bei W:O häuften sich diese Ausfallsperioden markannt, und ich konnte nicht mehr nur an einen technischen Ausfall, oder einen Verbindungsunterbruch zwischen Thailand, und Europa glauben.

Danach wollte ich den "Ausfällen" auf den Grund gehen. Zuerst wählte ich mich alternativ über einen 2. und 3. Internetprovider ins Netz, um festzustellen, ob der Fehler bei meinem Internetprovider lag. Fehlanzeige, es war bei allen drei Providern das selbe Problem, ich sah die Meldung "Seite nicht erreichbar" als ob W:O nicht mehr im Netz vorhanden wäre. Ergo lag der "Fehler" nicht bei meinen Providern.

Ein neuer Versuch bei W:O reinzukommen, wieder Fehlanzeige. Hernach versuchte ich, wie früher schon öfters bei "technischen Problemen", die W:O Seite über einen sogenannten anonymen Server aufzurufen, bei dem ich als der wirkliche Besucher beim W:O Server nicht zu erkennen bin, und siehe da es fuktionierte einwandfrei.

Wieder rein ins Netz, W:O Seite direkt aufrufen, Fehlanzeige. Nochmals rein über anonym Server, und siehe da, es fuktioniert wieder einwandfrei.

Danach habe ich über anonymserver mein letztes Posting bei W:O verfasst, und auf die Ungereimtheiten mit dem Zugang hingewiesen.
Dieses Posting wurde von keinem Board Mod beantwortet. Einige User versuchten mir darauf per Board Mail ihre Hilfe bei der "Fehlersuche" anzubieten. Es gab an diesem Tag auch 2, oder 3 Antworten im Board selbst auf mein letztes Posting.

Um jeden Zweifel auszuschliessen, und abzuklären ob es einen Datenunterbruch zwischen Thailand und Deutschland im Internet gebe, oder hier von Thailand aus die Seite von W:O gesperrt worden seien, fragte ich bei meinem für den Zugang ins Netz meist benutzten Internetprovider an. Einen Unterbruch gab es nicht, und gesperrt war W:O auch nicht.

Ein Fehler an meinem Coputer lag mit Sicherheit auch nicht vor.

Also kam ich zum Ergebniss, dass meine Probleme nicht von ungefähr stammen konnten, sondern ihre Ursache bei W:O haben mussten.

Wenn ich über anonym Server die W:O Seite einwandfrei erreichen, und auch posten konnte, ohne anonym Server hingegen gleichzeitig Mattscheibe sehe, was glaubst Du, was ich damals gedacht habe?

Daraufhin habe ich meine Mitgliedschaft bei W:O selbst aufgelöst.
Normalerweise erscheint nach kurzer Zeit die Meldung "Mitgliedschaft vom User xxx selbst aufgelöst". Dies war aber nicht der Fall. Tagelang sah es so aus, als ob ich einfach nicht mehr poste, und es entstanden einige Turbulenzen und Vermutungen im Thread, über meinen Verbleib. Erst nach über 10 Tagen, nachdem sich dutzende User bei W:O über den Sachverhalt erkundigt, oder beschwert hatten erschien dann endlich die Meldung, dass ich meine Mitgliedschaft selbst aufgelösst habe.

Da ich mich auch schon seit längerer Zeit, über die immer häufiger werdende, ausufernde Werbung, haupsächlich derjenigen von Gold Kartell Mitgliedern, und primär Dealer der FED, wie ABN Amro, für Ihre physische Gold Nachfrage entziehenden Papier Gold Derivative Werbung bei W:O geärgert habe, und auch nicht weiter über die langsamen anonym Server bei W:O posten wollte, habe ich meine Mitgliedschaft selbst gekündigt, und nach kurzer Überlegungspause im moderneren, technisch fortschrittlicheren, und vor allem, werbefreien http://www.Goldseiten-Forum.de ein neues Schreibdomizil gefunden.

Technisch ist es absolut möglich einen bestimmten User zu behindern, und damit zu vertreiben, ohne ihn direkt zu sperren. Dazu gibt es viele Möglichkeiten. Einen bestimmten User zu identifizieren, und zu behindern, den Zugang blockieren, etc., geht z.Bsp. über die Serien Nummer des Intel Prozessors, die IP Adresse, oder über Cookies die W:O bei jedem Besucher, auch bei Dir, falls Du Cookies nicht gesperrt hast, auf Deinem Computer abgespeichert hat.

Ob das bei mir so der Fall gewesen ist, kann ich nicht mit absoluter Sicherheit sagen, doch vermuten muss ich es auf Grund der Vorkommnisse wohl doch.

In Zukunft werde ich hier im Board weiter posten.

Mit freundlichen Grüssen

ThaiGuru

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Going To the Wall - The Franklin Sanders Story

19 March, 2004

THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING SILVER

The greatest mystery for any silver analyst is, Where has the silver come from in the last 14 years? Since 1990, year after year the world has consumed about 11% more silver (averaging 111 moz.) than it has produced, by now totalling 1.5 billion ounces. But year after year the price has either stayed flat or refused to rise.[i]

Now the so-called law of supply and demand says that the lower a price drops, the less the market will supply, and the higher the price rises, the more the market will supply. But in silver’s case, the more silver stayed flat or dropped, the more silver flowed to the market.

Gold Fields Mineral Services can’t tell you why. CPM Group can’t tell you why. The Silver Institute can’t tell you why. Neither can I. But something’s not right.

Full Story

By: Ed Steer, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc.

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http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1079729770.php

COT Silver Report - March 19, 2004

Silver Cot Report - Futures

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Silver Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

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bognair

"Die Situation der Goldanlage im Crash"

Finde diesen Beitrag von Eike Hamer, Friedrich Tiggemann, und Prof. Dr. Hamer sehr gut, und absolut eine sehr zutreffende Beschreibung zum Gold Geschehens.

Nur in einem wichtigen Punkt irren diese Herren gewaltig.

Es gibt keine 32000 Tonnen physisches Gold mehr bei den Zentralbanken! 16000 Tonnen, wenns hochkommt, denke ich, sind eine viel realistischere Zahl.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

kalle14

Zitat

1.) Warum sollten sich die Amerikaner den Dollar zerstören,macht doch keinen Sinn,das Lieblingsspielzeug,des KARTELL`S DER OSTKÜSTE, werden sich die Rothschild`s und Warburg`s(Eigentümer der FED) niemals zerstören lassen.Vergiss nie,mit FIAT - MONEY kannst Du jeden Politiker,und jeden Konzern kaufen,warum sollte man das aufgeben.

Die amerikanische Regierung, resp. die FED hat vermutlich überhaupt kein Interesse daran den Dollar zu zerstören.

Daraufhin deutet m.M.n. auch nichts hin. Die Realitäten lassen der Fed aber keinen Spielraum mehr. Die US Regierung möchte einen schwachen Dollar, um die Importe zu drosseln, und die Exporte zu steigern, und hofft damit ihr Zahlungsbilanzdefizit wieder in den Griff zu bekommen. Die US Regierung und die private FED haben sich durch ihre Schulden Politik aber schon so stark verrannt, dass es vermutlich keine Hoffnung mehr für einen turnaround gibt. Zur Zeit wird m.A.n. nur noch Flickschusterei betrieben, und manipuliert dass sich die Balken biegen. Die Interessen der US Regierung, und diejenigen ihrer "Verbündeten" wie die EU, Japan, etc. könnten nicht gegensätzlicher sein.

"Wenn zwei sich streiten, freut sich der dritte"

GOLD

Zitat

2.)Warum soll GOLD und SILBER steigen?Die Banken haben doch die Möglichkeit,sich gegenseitig Papiergold zu verkaufen,und somit die Möglichkeit den Preis zu deckeln.Die Minen sind ja auch zu einem grossteil im Besitz des KARTELL`S."Eine Krähe hackt doch der anderen kein Auge aus.

Die hacken sich schon gegenseitig kein Auge aus Kalle, das mit dem gegenseitigen hin und her Verkaufen von Gold Kontrakten, um die Preise zu manipulieren, wurde ja mehrfach von verschiedensten Autoren beschrieben, und es liegt nahe, dass es auch so gewesen ist.

Nur, das geht nur solange gut, wie kein echtes Gold dabei benötigt wurde. Heute wird aber vor allem aus dem indischen, arabischen, russischen, und chinesischen Raum, in ständig wachsendem Ausmas Gold physisch gekauft. Das Gold Kartell riskiert also, dass sich z.Bsp. die Chinesen Gold auf dem Papier kauft, und sich dieses dann ausliefern lässt. Das bereitet dem Cabal Probleme. Zum bestehenden jahrelangen Produktionsdefizit beim Gold, kommt neu jetzt noch ein steigender Bedarf an Gold als Anlageinstrument der ständig wachsenden Anzahl von Anlegern, die Gold wieder neu enteckt haben hinzu.

"Wenn die Quelle weniger Wasser hergibt als getrunken wird, trocknet sie unweigerlich früher, oder später aus!"

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Magor

Sehr interessant wie Du diese Frage, nach dem "Wo" und "Wann" ist der richtige Zeitpunkt zu einem Verkauf beim Gold beleuchtest.

Diese Frage habe ich mir ebenfalls oft schon gestellt. Ich bemühe mich schon seit Jahren aktiv dafür einzusetzen, dass Gold nicht manipulativ zum Vorteil einiger weniger, sondern wieder frei nach Angebot, und Nachfrage, zum Nutzen möglichst vieler, wieder frei gehandelt werden wird. Nun, ich glaube ich habe meinen kleinen Teil dazu beitragen können, dass die Gold Bugs diesem Ziel inzwischen schon viel nähergerückt sind, als manche Leser vielleicht noch vermuten mögen.

Als ich selbst vor Jahren, genauer gesagt im Sommer 1999 den Entschluss gefasst habe, Teile meines Vermögens sukzessive in Gold, und vor allem Gold Aktien anzulegen, bin ich vor allem durch die Aussagen zur zukünftigen Goldpreisentwicklung von Analysten wie John Hathaway, http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives2.php bestärkt worden, dessen Fachwissen, und Weitsicht bis heute nichts von seiner Aktualität und Brisanz eingebüsst hat.

Hatheway sprach damals von einem zwingenden Werte Einbruchs des US Dollars, und von einem möglichen Goldpreis in einer Übertreibungsphasevon bis zu 5000 US Dollars pro Unze Gold.

Damals war das noch ein absolutes Unding, solche Zahlen zu veröffentlichen, und wurde als Spinnerei abgetan. Heute denken, und schreiben viele Analysten, inklusive Dir selbst Magor, ja bereits viel weiter, und es werden mögliche Preise von bis zu 10000.-, 30000.-, oder gar 100000.- Dollar, im Falle eines möglichen Zusammenbruches unseres "Fiat Money" Geld Systems genannt, und es wird darüber diskutiert, und nachgedacht, wann denn der beste Zeitpunkt zum Verkaufen gekommen sei, ob und wieviel, oder wiewenig Kaufkraft durch ein gestern, oder heute getätigtes Gold Investment erhalten, oder sogar ausgebaut werden kann.

Bin heute jedoch davon überzeugt, dass es diesen "RICHTIGEN" Zeitpunkt zum Verkauf von Gold, das gerade jetzt wieder in täglich stärkerem Ausmas dabei ist, seinen alten Stellenwert als "GELD" wieder zu erlangen, (Abgesehen vom Daytrading) nie mehr geben wird.

Warum das so sein wird, ist eigentlich ganz einfach zu erklären!

Richtiges GELD ( Gold) verkauft man nicht, man gibt es nur aus, wenn es nötig ist, tausches in Waren, oder Dienstleistungen, oder versucht es zu vermehren indem man es möglichst produktiv investiert.

Falls ich mich entschliessen sollte, zu irgend einem Zeitpunkt, respektive Gold Preisstand, seien das nun 500.- Dollar, oder 5000.- Dollar pro Unze, mein Gold zu verkaufen, erhalte ich doch auch wieder nur diese "Luft", wie ich "Fiat Money" gerne nenne. Ein Papier ohne Deckung also, das von einigen priveligierten "privaten" Zentralbanken, in faktisch unbegrenzter Menge zum Druckkostenpreis hergestellt, und (fast) beliebig vermehrt werden kann, auf dem irgendwelche Zahlen stehen werden.

Danach würde ich wieder vor der grossen Frage stehen, was mach ich nun mit meinem ungedeckten Papier Geld "Fiat Money"

Viel wichtiger als über einen Verkauf von Gold nachzudenken scheint mir die Frage zu sein, welchen möglichen Gegenwert werden wir für eine Unze Gold in 5, oder 10 Jahren erhalten.

Nur einen Anzug, oder gar ein Auto. Ein Grundstück, oder die Villa darauf, oder gar beides zusammen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Reality won today as the US stock market acted like a sick puppy. The DOW fell 109 to 10,186 and the DOG bombed, down 22 to 1910. Seems to me anything could happen on the downside in the weeks ahead.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added only $2.5 Billion in repos today March 19th 2004 and this action caused the pool to fall to $24.25 Billion. However, the pool's ma is still swinging up from its bottom so we still see the Fed turning up the DOW support throttle. More evidence for this trend can be seen as the Fed issued another "coupon pass" today to be delivered Monday, March 22. Recall that coupon passes are interest payments that no longer have to be paid by the Fed's primary dealers...they are gifts to the dealers.

LBMA a bit late

The LBMA normally posts their precious metals volume clearing statistics by the 15th of each month. I wonder why they are delayed? Could this be another PPI style fiasco? It's early, so let's not get too excited yet. Last month the silver volume jumped up to 143 Million ounces per day while gold stayed around 14 Million ounces per day, it was a sure sign of upward volatility in silver and it should continue. If the silver volume is markedly higher for February (say, 180 Million ounces per day), we will have an important re confirmation of an imminent LBMA silver market exhaustion event. That would leave only the COMEX as the last source of metal and the big players certainly know it.

I post monthly charts of these important metrics at Reg Howe's

http://www.goldensextant.com

under the "Regression charts" section.

Isn't it fun watching the silver streak? What panic there must be behind the rigger's embroidered curtains!

Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hi Bill:

Open interest data and Commitment of Trader’s data is again most revealing this week.

Monday, March 8 marked a low in the open interest totals for this year of some 226,670 contracts. AS of yesterday, Thursday, March 18, open interest now stands at 260,524 contracts. That is an increase of 33,854 contracts or 3.4 million ounces. Since March 8, the gold price has moved from the closing price of $400.90 to yesterday’s close at $411.30. It is obvious from the data that the big funds have re-entered the arena and are massing their firepower. They look to have now once again trained their sights on the gold market. As is to be expected, the Commercial Short category (– the gold cartel government-sponsored price riggers known affectionately as the cartel) did the bulk of the selling into this rally and increased their short positions nearly 12,000 contracts doing their infernal worst to suppress the price of the yellow metal and avoid engendering any public excitement.

Let’s extrapolate a bit.

On March 2, 2004, the Commitment of Traders data revealed that funds had a total long exposure of 83,802 contracts. Front month gold closed at $393.80 on that day. Fund level of long interest in gold had not been that low since Aug 5, 2003 when it was at 75,623 contracts. On that date front month gold closed at $349.60. It went on to gradually build until it reached a peak of 151,691 long contracts on January 6, 2004 when front month gold closed at $422.80. The skinny of all this is that as funds piled into the gold arena to take on the cartel, they eventually added some 67,889 contracts driving the price from $349.60 to $422.80 for an increase of $73.20.

If the funds decide that they want to allocate resources to gold and begin to re-enter in size as they did beginning in the 3rd quarter of last year, they have ample room to pile on seeing that they are starting from such a reduced level. I can only lick my chops in anticipation of where they could drive the price on this next leg up. It is easily conceivable that we could see $465 gold by mid summer depending on the rate and speed of their re-entry. Anyone who does not respect the sheer firepower these fellows can bring to bear needs only to look next door to neighboring silver. Additionally, we have not even mentioned what the little specs can add to the mix as they decide to get in on the move. Keep in mind that rising prices attract attention and a rising gold price will see an exponential increase in the number of new longs that pour into the gold pit.

I personally am of the opinion that a gold close over the $416 region first, and then the $419 area, will send massive deployment of fund resources pouring into gold as momentum indicators will be registering powerful technical buy signals. Still, in comparison to the rest of the metals sector, gold has languished of late.

For another take on this - Let’s go back to that August 5, 2003 date when the fund total long interest in gold was 75,623 and the gold price was $349.60. The CRB index closed at 234.60 on that day. Today, the CRB index closed at 280.20.

To put things into a bit of perspective - Here’s the closing prices for some of the metals, grains and crude oil back on that same date – August 5, 2003, with their closing price as of today.

August 5, 2003 March 19, 2004 Percentage Increase

CRB – 234.60 CRB – 280.20 +19.4%

Silver – 493.60 Silver - 755.10 + 53%

Copper - 80.65 Copper – 137.80 + 70.9%

Platinum – 680.0 Platinum – 890.0 + 30.9%

Palladium – 178.50 Palladium – 278.0 + 55.7%

Crude Oil – 32.22 Crude Oil – 37.62 + 16.8%

Soybeans – 5.42 Soybeans – 10.24 + 88.9%

Corn - 2.095 Corn - 3.12 + 48.9%

Gold - $349.60 Gold - $412.70 + 18%

Notice poor Ol’ Yeller – gold has managed a mere 18% increase since August 5, 2003 which in comparison to the other metals looks pretty pathetic in the general scheme of things. While a bit more than the price gain in crude oil, it still lags the CRB index. From my perspective, gold seems to have reached a point where it is now undervalued in comparison with commodities in general and with the metals in particular.

Switching briefly to silver – the Commitment of Traders report is stunning. As of Tuesday, the funds longs had actually liquidated their long positions dropping them to the tune of 1,691 contracts. Apparently, the 35 cent range last Friday where silver dropped 25 cents at one point only to roar back on the close to a 13 cent loss at 706.30 was too much for some of them and they were forced out. The category that took the bulk of their place however was the Commercials who instituted a whopping 2,260 new long positions. Could it be that end users of silver are getting nervous about rising prices and are looking to get some upside protection? Given the moves we have seen in silver thus far, I believe that this is the most likely scenario. With the huge upside move of yesterday and today’s breach of the important psychological barrier of 750, it will be interesting to see next week’s release to see who was doing what. The speed and ferocity of silver’s move up these last two days smells of short covering by some party yet the rising open interest tells us that the short coverers are finding new replacements who are willing to step in front of this freight train and short the silver express. My guess is that the remaining funds who are short are getting out and more commercial end users are getting hedge protection from rising prices as well.

One last point in regards to silver - the total commercial short position of 97,381 is now approaching the highest level since last September of 2003 when they were short a total of 98,056 short contracts and recently that of February 2004 when they held 98,639 shorts. One has to begin to wonder at what point these guys are going are going to throw in the towel and begin to cover. There comes a time in the market when even the commercials are forced out due to hedge related losses. Could we be getting close to seeing that occur? Time will tell but one has to wonder how many more shorts they are willing to donate to this runaway bull before they are completely and utterly gored.

Dan Norcini

dnorcini@earthlink.net

3/19 Bank of England Official warns U.S. about FRE and FNM - Reuters

[B]B of E Monetary Policy member Paul Tucker says large Government Sponsored Enterprises, like FRE and FNM, may impose systemic risk on the financial markets. Commenting about a research paper recently finished for the British Treasury on reforming the UK mortgage market, Mr. Tucker said he was relieved that the paper did not recommend installing an American-style system. [/B]

From Jesse:

Louise Yamada of Salomon Smith Barney was on Bloomberg TV about 12:15 today for the lunch hour.

She is very bullish on gold and oil, and also water. She is obviously inflationary and dollar bearish in her outlook.

She sees gold beginning a major bull move up, that will take it to resistance just over 500, and then it may break away and run up to 1000 based on her technical analysis.

Although she did not say it, I have heard that the Smith Barney analyst is very bullish on NEM and sees an upside move to 80 based on the technicals.

I was a little surprised Solly let her come on TV and say things that are so obviously dollar and equity bearish. Since she wouldn't talk about any equities but the miners, perhaps they figure that the folks cannot connect the dots.

-END-

An example of how the efforts of the GATA ARMY is paying off:

Hi Bill

Attached is today's commentary from a senior investment analyst for a private London bank. Note that he quotes O'Meara, Butler and Morgan and sees manipulation of both gold and silver. He also gives a short summary of the Hunt brothers silver efforts.

Best regards,

Bill
==========================================================================

* Amid the greed and frenzy of the secular precious metals and commodities bull market (and the rise in crude oil prices, we note with modest contentment, is making most sell-side analysts look like the overpaid bumpkins that they are), one story may cause investors to reach for the history books. "Is silver scandal on the horizon ?" writes Kelly Patricia O'Meara of Insight Magazine:

"a growing number of investors believe that the silver market has been manipulated to hold down the price.."[/B]

Silver analyst and investor David Morgan suggests that the demand for silver has exceeded the supply from the mining sector for over a decade, the shortfall amounting to roughly 150 million ounces of silver per year, or 1.5 billion ounces over the past decade. Until quite recently, diminishing supply and rising demand for silver had led to no price movement of any significance. (A cursory glance of the USD spot price on Bloomberg shows that silver has now risen by 40% since November 2003. The start of an inevitable gravitational correction Independent commodity analyst Ted Butler suggests that a small number of silver traders - eight or less - have sold silver they don't own and cannot get unless they have some way of obtaining for delivery all of the world's silver production for the next couple of years. Given that there have been silver deficits for 15 years, this scenario looks unlikely. (Not everyone, of course, has lost their shirt on silver. Warren Buffett profitably bought 130 million oz. between July 1997 and January 1998 in anticipation that "equilibrium between supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price.")

In 1970, Bunker Hunt, scion of the H.L. Hunt oil dynasty, decided to invest in silver at the price of $1.50 per oz., most likely as an inflation hedge. (The US government had made it illegal for its citizens to own gold.) By early 1974 a Hunt silver pool had amassed silver contracts equivalent to 8% of the world's silver supply. The family flew on chartered 707 jets to Chicago and New York, were met by a convoy of armoured vans, then flew to Zurich and another convoy of armoured vans. Silver was dispatched to six different Swiss locations. The Hunts continued to accumulate silver positions. In late 1979, the silver price doubled from $8 to $16 per oz. and provoked panic conditions on the COMEX and CBOT. CBOT changed its trading rules and raised its margin requirements. In January 1980, COMEX in turn changed its trading rules and was backed up by the CFTC. On January 17th, the silver price hit $50 per oz., putting the Hunt's unrealised profits at $3.5 billion.

But they were up against institutional short positions. COMEX suspended silver trading on January 21st. The silver price collapsed. After Hunt liquidations, the family owed $1.5 billion dollars. Fearing a widespread financial collapse (pre-echoes here of Long-Term Capital Management), the Federal Reserve approved a bailout plan with a syndicate of banks.

So history would appear to be repeating itself. Will the shorts win out again ? If Jim Rogers, China, India, the current commodities bull market, very recent silver price history and our own predilection for precious metals are anything to go by, they deserve to get profoundly stuffed. Unfortunately for believers in free markets, the gold and silver markets would appear to run the risk of falling invariable victim to enormous intervention and price manipulation on the part of central banks and other large institutions. But since push is coming to shove in our world of overflowing and overvalued paper assets, this contest should be livelier and more evenly matched than in the past.

-END-

Derek Vanartsdalen from San Antonio sends us some silver commentary of from a recent http://www.Mineweb.com article. It is typical of the drivel I have been reading on during the last $2 silver price run up. Unreal how it can be so bad.

Bill,

Here's a few paragraphs from a story about silver off thebulliondesk.com this a.m. These two guys clearly don't have a clue. Their words may be great material for a "Famous Last Words" jab in "Midas" later this year. Especially gotta love the pure stupidity of that last quote. As if Buffett is willing to make poor investments just
because he's loaded. What a laugher...
Derek

[/B]Here they are:

Not everyone is convinced the rally in silver will last.

[B]``There's no doubt that investment and speculation had driven the price above what is sustainable on the basis of demand and supply,'' said GFMS Director Paul Walker, who expects prices to drop below $6.

High prices will erode demand from India, the world's largest jewelry consumers, and encourage holders of scrap silver to sell metal as they did when prices surged to $50 in 1980, Walker said.

``When the Hunt brothers were squeezing the market, people were melting coins, jewelry and silverware,'' he said.

There's no shortage of silver, said Michael Merolla, executive vice president of Cookson Material Products, an Attleboro, Massachusetts-based unit of Cookson Group Plc. Cookson sells silver to jewelry makers and the U.S. Mint.

`All Speculation'

``I don't believe there's a fundamental reason, based on supply and demand, for silver to be as high as it is,'' Merolla said. ``It's all based on currency issues or speculation.''

Metech International Inc., a silver scrap recycler based in Mapleville, Rhode Island, says more silver is becoming available.

``Companies will try to get rid of any excess inventory or scrap material faster when the value of silver is higher so they will tend to send us more material,'' Metech Chief Financial Officer William Haggerty said in an interview. ``We've seen a pickup since the beginning of this year.''

Davies, who came to Malvern, Pennsylvania, in 1966 as a chemist for Johnson Matthey Plc before helping to found Ames Goldsmith in 1979, says he doesn't own any bullion after watching the market for more than three decades.

``There are people touting silver as a good investment, but if you look at silver over the course of ages, it's been one of the worst investments you can possibly pick,'' Davies said. ``It's all right for Warren Buffett to invest in the silver market because he's got tons of money. But for the average person to invest in the silver market today, they need to get their brains tested.''

-END-

Are the markets trading differently:

Hi Bill,

I don't know about you, but I get the feeling that this market has turned. It has a different look about it. No doubt bond traders were spooked by the PPI number and yields are starting to rise. The Asian and European sessions are not now selling off gold like they have for many months, and silver is staying rock solid too.

The Dow and Nasdaq are looking very fragile. Of course when you're trying to second guess manipulated markets you can get into awful trouble, and it may be too early to say this is a definite trend, but it certainly feels different. Even the Bin Laden number didn't really work through the session, and for me the most bullish part for gold and silver was that they finished higher despite the dollar gaining more than a cent on the euro! That's been happening for most of this week, too.

[/B]Next week may be crucial.

Cheers,

Malcolm

B]The gold shares continue to stumble. They were weak all day despite the strength in gold and silver. The good news was they actually rallied off their lows late in the day DESPITE the big sell off in the general market. This bodes well for next week. The XAU made it into positive territory late to finish at 101.43, up .34. The HUI dropped .11 to 228.52.

Still time to get on board THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Enter the Specs

Friday, March 19, 2004

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.58, PM $1.22, with world gold at $411 both times. Well below legal import levels. Stories about stronger Indian demand are still echoing around the commentaries; these probably stem from the excursion by world gold into the low $390s earlier this month.

With no particular leadership from the yen today, TOCOM was not inclined to challenge NY: the active contract closed up 23 yen, at which point world gold stood 75c above the NY close; but volume fell 46% to only equal 25,759 Comex lots: open interest slipped by the equivalent of 968 Comex. (NY volume on Thursday was a huge 93,845 contracts; c open interest was up a steep 11,086 lots, tending to confirm fund involvement.)

It is common cause amongst the commentators that Funds are coming back into the gold market:

Zitat

"there are strong indications that speculators have begun to rebuild their long positions - indicated both by an increase in open interest on Comex and the rally in the euro-denominated gold price."

Says UBS. Standard London offers:

Zitat

"As in earlier sessions, there seemed to be some kind of force keeping the market from sliding further despite good selling at the lows."

Perhaps most impressive of all, Bloomberg News, by far the most top-down directed editorially of the Newswires and usually taciturn about gold, has reversed a recent flow of bearish stories, and actually published something positive, a story entitled

"Gold rises, Heading for Year’s Biggest Weekly Gain…"

(Prolonged observation has created the impression that Bloomberg’s story choices reflect the predilections of the major speculative pools.) This trend is having an effect: the JP Morgan Metal & Oil Technical Strategist commentary, previously cautious, has taken the plunge:

"Gold - rally through trendline resistance at 408 suggests further gains - We have been a little undecided whether the rally from 388 was in 5 wave or not and as such we have been waiting for a break of 408 to confirm further gains. That break was seen yesterday and as long as we don't pullback through 406/05 we retain a bull bias for a move through 416/18 and onto the 430 highs.

Buy Gold at 410 risking 405 targeting 428.

Marin Pring in his "Weekly InterMarket Update", (previously very cautious), adds, speaking of the HUI

"…a decisive daily close above 231…would be an excellent pointer that the gold price is about to make a new bull market high."

See http://www.pring.com/

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

March 19 - Gold $412.10 up $1.40 - Silver $7.53 up 10 cents

Silver Goes $7.68 Bid At One Point/Makes 15-Year High

Zitat

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. ..Mark Twain

GO GATA!!!

The action today centered around silver. It was a "wowzer" at one point. After a subdued opening, it took off as some dealers panicked. Their shortcovering took silver up to $7.68 bid at one point. It was pounded down on the day again, but when little selling surfaced the locals were forced to cover and silver drifted higher as the day wore on. By the end of the day silver closed in 15-year high ground. YES!

Word was the silver spike emanated out of the London cash market. This CONFIRMS the info sent your way in the MIDAS commentary these past months and that there isn’t any silver left in Europe of any size. The cupboard is bare.

When silver was down on the day for the second time I received more valuable information from the Café’s Mid East contact. He tells me the problems with physical silver delivery are heating up, which is probably the reason for the spike this morning. Smoke is billowing all over the place in the silver world. Amazingly, almost no gets the real story. CLUELESS is the name of the game for most commentators on silver. You would think the incredible price action would lead some to suspect something is going on behind the scenes. NOPE! Most all I read is how bearish the market is (see below), or how overdone silver is on the upside. Never seen anything like this before.

Silver closed over major resistance at $7.50 with ease. We now shoot for $8.31, then $10. What is exciting is we still have no gaps to fill. We are due for that 15 cent higher opening and then a run of 40 cents higher on the day, perhaps a $1 higher in one trading session. It’s going to get crazier and crazier in the silver pits in the weeks to come. Hold on to your hats!

The silver open interest is creeping up. However, it is nowhere near being too frothy. It gained 571 contracts to 119,160. The March dropped 99 contracts to 292.

There were 7 deliveries with Deutsche Bank taking 1 of them. I still am waiting for someone to deliver a March contract to me.

May silver on its way to the moon:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54

Gold chopped around all day. First it ran up, then it was trashed. As in silver, there was no follow through selling and the locals were forced to cover. The big concern is the staggering open interest build up on Thursday. It rose 11,160 contracts to 260,524. The specs are piling in and The Gold Cartel is doing all it can to prevent gold from taking out the $414 to $416 level. With commodity prices soaring talk of inflation is finally creeping into many commentaries. The last thing the cabal wants to see is gold rising sharply, which will confirm the inflation scenario for many of the pundits.

Can anything be more undervalued than gold is today? It ought to be running towards $500 per ounce rather than piddling around at these nowhere prices. It’s coming. Silver is headed to the moon. The more it goes bananas, the more attention gold is going to receive.

The best news of the day is gold continues to advance in other currencies. This is just what we want to happen, what we have predicted, and what we have been waiting for. No reason gold can’t rise $100 per ounce and the dollar do nothing.

Gold closed at 336.81 in euro terms, a new high for the move. The dollar closed at 88.54, up .39, while the euro gave up .94 to 122.52.

Gold closed higher every day this week. Can’t remember the last time that happened.

One fine looking April gold chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/44

April crude oil closed at $38.08 per barrel. Soybeans finished at a whopping $10.24 per bushel.

While the huge open interest build up is of concern, gold bulls have to be heartened the way bullion is moving higher, even as the dollar is going up. What will gold do when the dollar turns down? In addition, while the specs are pouring in, so are the Chinese and Saudis on the physical side. It is becoming more apparent to the BIG MONEY that gold and silver are the places to park investment funds. The serious moves higher are only at their earliest stages. The Gold Cartel is being blown out of the water in silver because they are running out of physical to continue their FRAUD. Soon, demand for gold will be so overpowering, the crooks will lose control of that market also.

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Newmont gives CEO huge raise, citing performance

By David Milstead and Gargi Chakrabarty, Rocky Mountain News

March 19, 2004

Denver-based Newmont Mining gave CEO Wayne Murdy $4.35 million in compensation in 2003, a 72 percent increase over the prior year.

The figure includes a $1.25 million bonus on top of his $728,000 salary. The company also gave Murdy a grant of restricted stock worth nearly $1.8 million and a payout from the company's long-term incentive plan of $565,321, according to the company's annual proxy statement, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

weiter....

http://www.rockymountainnews.c…99,DRMN_4_2741497,00.html

Bei Barrick Gold, dem grössten Shorter und Preisdrücker der Gold Branche (Prozess läuft!), wird anscheinend bereits schon jetzt für den Ernstfall "geübt". Die Hedge Bücher stehen bei einem Goldpreis von heute 412.- Dollar bereits massiv unter Wasser. Bei weiter steigendem Goldpreis dürfte es sich um Milliarden Summen handeln die auf dem Spiel stehen. Würde mich nicht wundern, wenn sich allenfalls noch JP-Morgan als "finanzieller Retter" selbst zum Goldproduzenten entwickelt.

Dass die Herren Direktoren sich bereits jetzt schon darauf vorbereiten, um sich zum Schluss dann noch gegenseitig die Türklinken etwas zu vergolden, kann da eigentlich nicht sonderlich verwundern.

Gruss

Thaiguru

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com…rrick19/BNStory/Business/

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Friday, Mar. 19, 2004

Barrick brass in line for golden handshakes

By PETER KENNEDY
From Friday's Globe and Mail

Vancouver — Senior executives at Barrick Gold Corp. could receive roughly $12-million in total payouts if the mining giant is swallowed up and they end up losing their jobs.

The key beneficiaries in the event of a takeover are chief executive officer and president Greg Wilkins, vice-chairman John Carrington, vice-chairman, corporate development, Tye Burt and vice-president and general counsel Patrick Garver.

Under change of control agreements that were disclosed in the company's management information circular released Thursday, each of the four would receive payouts equal to three times his annual salary and bonus.

In addition, all unexercised stock options held by each executive will immediately vest and become exercisable and remain exercisable for the lesser of three years or until they are due to expire.

"This doesn't come as a huge surprise given the rumours of consolidation in the gold mining industry,'' said Hatham Hodaly, a mining analyst with Salman Partners Inc. in Vancouver.

Toronto-based Barrick is the world's third-largest gold miner, and the second biggest in North America, based on an annual production target of 4.9 million ounces this year.

The change of control agreements replace previous arrangements signed in 1998. Those agreements have now expired, said Barrick spokesman Vince Borg.

Under the previous arrangement, senior executives were protected for three years after a takeover occurs, compared with only one year in the new change of control agreement.

Such agreements are designed to induce senior executives to remain with the company by providing more certainty about severance packages. That, in turn, should allow the executives to focus on building shareholder value, Mr. Borg said.

The latest agreement would take effect if any of the four are terminated for any reason (other than for cause, disability or retirement) within a one-year period following a change of control.

As a result, if a change of control occurs, Mr. Wilkins would be entitled to a payout of at least $4.2-million, based on the $1.4-million in compensation he received last year. His pay package included salary of $627,036 and a $802,606 bonus.

The change of control agreement does not include Barrick chairman Peter Munk who was paid $1.2-million in salary and bonuses last year, up from $554,140 in 2002, when he did not pick up a bonus.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange Thursday, Barrick shares rose 11 cents to $29.40.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bday.co.za/bday/pix/masthead/bdlogo01.gif]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/con…23,1573748-6078-0,00.html

Friday 19 March 2004

Aflease looks to raise R100m

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Justin Brown

Major gold miner Afrikander Lease (Aflease, AFL) is looking to raise R100 million through a rights issue, Aflease CEO Neal Froneman said on Friday.

The rights issue, to be launched next week, will be fully underwritten by Randgold & Exploration (RNG). The R100 million will be used to fund the development of Aflease Bonanza South project as well as funding feasibility studies into the possibility of mining uranium and the Modder East project. The money raised will also be used to pay off the R50 million loan facility Aflease has with Nedcor (NED).

I-Net Bridge

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http://www.canada.com/business…BE-49E7-90CF-F4904B4AE1EB

Saturday » March 20 » 2004

Agnico-Eagle faces OSC probe over disclosure of Quebec mine rockfall

Canadian Press

Thursday, March 18, 2004

TORONTO (CP) - Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. is facing the possibility of proceedings by securities regulators over its disclosure of a rockfall at a Quebec mine last year.

The mining company said Thursday it has been advised that staff at the Ontario Securities Commission "are contemplating commencing proceedings" against the company and members of management in relation to the timing of a March 31, 2003 news release.

That release said an estimated 30,000 tons of rock had fallen "this month" at the LaRonde gold mine in northwestern Quebec.

There were no injuries and no equipment was damaged, but the release estimated the company's gold production would be reduced by 20 per cent.

In reporting its first-quarter results on April 23, the company said the fall "occurred over a period of approximately two weeks," and "the impact on production could not be assessed until the end of March," after the fallen rock was removed and a new mining sequence was devised.

"The board of directors of the company met today to discuss the matter and investigate the issues arising out of the commission's letter," Agnico-Eagle said Thursday.

"The company intends to co-operate fully with the Ontario Securities Commission and will respond as soon as practical to the commission's letter."

Last month, a contract worker was killed at the same mine after an explosion.

Also last month, Agnico-Eagle (TSX:AGE) reported a net loss of $19.5 million for 2003.

© Copyright 2004 The Canadian Press

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COT Gold Report - March 19, 2004

Gold Cot Report - Futures

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Gold Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.theaureport.com/images/banner_tm.jpg]

http://www.theaureport.com/cs/user/print/na/54?x-t=pub.view

Time to be Defensive?

Source: The Gold Report 03/18/2004

Victor Flores, Senior Analyst with HSBC Securities, shares his thoughts with TGR about his outlook. He sees the current correction as short-lived, and thinks that it will be followed by a rally in gold, and presumably in gold equities. He believes that the rally may end somewhere around the third quarter, and argues that we’re getting fairly late in the cycle. Says Flores, “We’re reaching the point where it’s time to start thinking more defensively.”

TGR: Where do you think we are in the cycle? Do you think gold is just taking a rest, and then it will continue going up?

VF: We think that the gold market is being driven predominantly by the weakness of the dollar. To put it more succinctly, we think this is a currency-driven gold market, and we think that this currency-driven gold rally, based on our current understanding of the global macro picture, could last up through the third quarter of this year. And what we’re looking at really is the U.S. dollar-Euro exchange rate topping out or bottoming out, depending on how you look at it, at 1.35:1. Based on our current understanding of what’s happening on the macro front, we think that the dollar will weaken to about $1.35 against the Euro. We think that will happen sometime in the third quarter. So, we would argue that we could see a peak gold price in this cycle of somewhere around $450 an ounce.

TGR: After the third quarter?

VF: The third quarter. So coming back to your original question, that would lead us to think that right now the gold price is taking a breather as the dollar has a bit of a rally against the Euro.

TGR: Do you think the gold sell-off was expected? Because the market was getting a little bit too heated?

VF: Well, some people will say there’s no reason for the dollar to strengthen. But anytime you’re dealing with cyclical rallies, you’re bound to have corrections. So as far as the gold market goes, we were having a very nice strong rally and now we’re having a bit of a correction. If you’re looking at the Euro rallying against the dollar, it’s now had a bit of a correction, or is having a bit of a correction. And I would argue that one shouldn’t be too surprised by that.

TGR: What about mining equities? Are there any that you’re especially bullish on right now?

VF: Well, if you come back to the view that gold is taking a breather, which will be followed by a rally in gold, and presumably in gold equities, and you believe that that rally will end somewhere around the third quarter, I would argue that we’re getting fairly late in the cycle. I might use this time to start thinking about what happens once the rally peaks and then perhaps starts to wane. In my view, we’re reaching the point where it’s time to start thinking more defensively.

TGR: Thinking more defensively – what exactly do you mean by that?

VF: In other words, there’s been a tremendous rally in the past six months to a year in the very junior names. I would argue that it’s time to say, “That was lots of fun, now let’s start taking profits in the more junior names.” If investors are still interested in participating in the end of the rally, then they should think in terms of some of the larger producers.

TGR: The larger caps.

VF: Yes, because what we have seen in the past is when the music stops, it stops very suddenly. All of a sudden, you want to get out of your junior names, but it’s too late.

TGR: And why would you want to get out of the junior names?

VF: Well, because that’s when the liquidity dries up. You may want to sell, but no one’s buying. So, the exit from the more junior names has to be made in advance of the top.

TGR: But it’s always hard to know just exactly when that is.

VF: Well, that’s my argument. In our view, we are going to have another move in gold that takes us up to $450. And one could argue that I am cheating people out of a last chance to make some money. However, I would say to you, fine, you can take your chances, stay in the junior names until the very end. But if you don’t time it right, you might not be able to get out.

People have already made lots of money in the junior names, so why not take some profits? And if they still want exposure to that last leg of the rally, they can buy the names that are still going to go up. There’s no question that these larger companies will respond to the gold price, too. They’re just a lot easier to get out of.

TGR: Let’s talk about some of the larger companies. In February, you had a “Buy” rating on Placer Dome. You mentioned an immediate catalyst – the measurable improvement in market sentiment -- plus the decision to develop Getchell, and by the exploration news that has come out of Cortez Hills. Has anything new developed on that front?

VF: No, all of those things are still very much in play.

TGR: What about Meridian? Do you also have a “Buy” on them?

VF: Yes.

TGR: Any new developments there?

VF: There has been absolutely no word on Esquel but that doesn’t particularly bother me because once again, if you look at Meridian’s current business, it’s very sound. The company going to produce 300,000 ounces or more this year. Its cash cost is around $50 an ounce. With the gold price around $400, Meridian making a cool $350 bucks for every ounce it produces. The market is perhaps a bit obsessed with Esquel. My attitude is that this company has a great business, and if Esquel turns out right, well, that’s just icing on the cake. In the meantime, Meridian has very low operating costs and a great-looking balance sheet. It’s the type of defensive name I would rather be in at this point of the cycle.

TGR: What are some of the other larger names that you recommend?

VF: Well, let’s see. There’s AngloGold, Placer Dome, Meridian, IAMGOLD, and Buenaventura.

TGR: Okay, and as far as the juniors, you see them headed towards a bit more of a liquidity problem because of where we are in the cycle.

VF: Yes.

TGR: Are there any within that group that you think have good outlooks?

VF: Yes, the one company I would highlight is Rio Narcea. When the Aguablanca mine starts up, assuming nickel prices are still in line with what they are now, that asset will produce cash flow in amounts that will dwarf whatever the gold mine produces. Everybody – well not everybody -- but some people are obsessed with that little gold mine of theirs. I am not happy with what happened, but it’s beside the point. If Aguablanca comes into production on time and on budget, and there’s every indication that it will, and the nickel price is anywhere near where it is right now, this mine is going to see far more cash flow than the gold mine ever will.

TGR.: Well, that’s a pretty strong case right there. Is there anything else you’d like to add?

VF: I think the key point that I have tried to make is that I believe, based on our macro view and on the history of the cycle, it’s time to start thinking about what happens next. Unfortunately, when the gold price gets running as it has and the stocks all run, people tend to think that it’s going to continue on ad infinitum.

Disclaimers:

The research analyst(s) who prepared this report certifies(y) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst's(s') personal views about the subject security(ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his/her/their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

Recommendation structure Sector (vs market)
Stock (vs sector) Overweight Neutral Underweight
Buy (outperform >15%) Key Buy Buy Add
Add (outperform <15%) Buy Add Hold
Hold (Sector neutral) Add Hold Reduce
Reduce (underperform <15%) Hold Reduce Sell
Sell (underperform >15%) Reduce Sell Key Sell

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc*
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HSBC Tower
New York, NY 10018, USA
Telephone: +1 212 525 5000
Fax: +1 212 525 0354
Website: http://www.equities.hsbc.com

For companies covered on a sector basis, we apply a two-stage recommendation structure: a combination of the analysts' view on the stock relative to its sector and the sector call relative to the market, together giving a view on the stock relative to the market. The sector call is the responsibility of the strategy team set in co-operation with the analysts. For other companies, we show a recommendation relative to the market. The performance horizon is 6-12 months. The target price is the level the stock should currently trade at if the market accepted the analysts' view of the stock and, therefore, abstracts from the need to take a view on the market or sector.

Recommendation distribution
As of January 1, 2004 the distribution of recommendations for this sector is the following:
Buy ? 11%; Add ? 42%; Hold ? 5%; Reduce ? 37%; Sell ? 5%

Market maker
HSBC does not make a market in the equity securities of these issuers.

Beneficial ownership
As of March 1, 2004 HSBC and its affiliates did not beneficially own 1% of the outstanding
securities of these issuers.

Corporate relationships
HSBC has not managed or co-managed a public offering of equity securities for the issuer within the last twelve (12) months except Gold Fields and Newmont Mining. HSBC has not received compensation for investment banking services within the past twelve (12) months except Gold Fields, Newmont Mining, and Randgold Resources . HSBC does expect to receive and does intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three (3) months.

*Legal entities as at 30 November 2002
HSBC Financial Services (Middle East) Limited, Dubai; HSBC Research (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd, Kuala Lumpur; HSBC Securities (Asia) Limited, Hong Kong; HSBC Securities (Asia) Limited, Taipei Branch; HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc, Toronto; HSBC CCF Securities (France) SA, Paris; HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt KGaA, Dusseldorf; HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; HSBC Securities Egypt S.A.E., Cairo; HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; HSBC Securities Polska S.A., Warsaw; HSBC Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Securities (Thailand) Limited, Bangkok; HSBC Pantelakis Securities S.A., Athens; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S., Istanbul; Merrill Lynch HSBC Australia Pty, Melbourne.
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This material was prepared and is being distributed by HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., ("HSI") a member of the HSBC Group, the NYSE and the NASD. This material is for the information of clients of HSI and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. It is based on information from sources, which HSI believes to be reliable but it is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. This material is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.

In the UK this report may only be distributed to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. The protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime are available only to those dealing with a representative of HSBC Bank plc in the UK. In Hong Kong, this document has been distributed by HSBC Securities (Asia) Limited in the conduct of its Hong Kong regulated business for the information of its institutional and professional customers; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers. HSBC Securities (Asia) Limited makes no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Hong Kong or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. All inquiries by such recipients must be directed to HSBC Securities (Asia) Limited. (April 2003)